Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
Nothing in the federal data suggests waiting saves money. Equipment producer prices are up 60% since 2019, rose in 21 of the 31 month-over-month comparisons since January 2024, and August 2026 is the highest reading in the series.
The incentive picture also got worse, not better. The 25C credit worth up to $2,000 on a qualifying heat pump expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025.
If your system is working, waiting is a reasonable choice. If it is failing, waiting is a bet, and the published data has not rewarded that bet for several years. Here is what each factor actually says.
What the price trend says
Producer prices for HVAC equipment manufacturing rose from an index of 203.0 in 2019 to 324.8 in August 2026, up 60%. Consumer prices rose 31% over the same period, so equipment inflated at roughly twice the general rate.
More to the point for timing: the series has risen in most recent months and the latest reading is its highest since 2019. There is no published federal forecast of a decline, and we do not make one. See our price index analysis for the drivers.
What changed on incentives
| Factor | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Federal 25C credit on a qualifying heat pump | Up to $2,000 | $0 |
| What controls eligibility | Placed in service by Dec 31, 2025 | Not available |
| State and utility rebates | Unaffected | Unaffected |
Installation date controls, not purchase date, so equipment bought in late 2025 and installed in 2026 does not qualify. Details in what the 25C expiry costs.
What waiting does and does not change
- Does not lower the price. No published data supports a decline, and the trend has run the other way.
- Does not restore the tax credit. 25C expired by statute for post-2025 installations.
- Does narrow refrigerant options over time. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory is finite, though it remains federally installable with no end date.
- Does risk an emergency replacement. A failure in peak season removes your ability to compare quotes, which is the one lever you fully control.
- Does preserve capital. The real argument for waiting. If the system works, money not spent is money kept.
Not the market, the season. Comparing quotes properly requires time, and time is exactly what you lack when a system fails in August or January. If replacement is coming within a year or two, doing it outside peak season is the controllable advantage. The price trend is not.
Frequently asked questions
Should I replace my HVAC now or wait?
Nothing in the federal data supports waiting for lower prices. Equipment producer prices are up 60% since 2019, rose in 21 of the last 31 month-over-month comparisons, and August 2026 is the series high. The 25C credit worth up to $2,000 also expired for installations after December 31, 2025. If your system works, waiting preserves capital; if it is failing, waiting is a bet the data has not rewarded.
Will HVAC prices go down in 2026?
There is no sign of it in published federal data, and we make no forecast. The producer price index for HVAC equipment reached its highest reading since 2019 in August 2026 and has risen in most recent months. No federal agency publishes a price forecast for this equipment.
Is there still a tax credit if I wait?
Not federally. The Section 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit applies to property placed in service before December 31, 2025, and installation date controls rather than purchase date. State and utility rebates are separate programmes and are unaffected by the federal expiry.
When is the best time of year to replace an HVAC system?
Outside peak heating and cooling season, because that is when you have time to compare quotes properly. An emergency replacement in August or January removes the one lever you fully control. The federal data offers no basis for timing the price itself.
Methodology and limitations
Equipment prices are BLS series PCU333415333415, indexed to its 2019 annual average, with month-over-month counts computed from the monthly series since January 2024. Consumer prices are CUUR0000SA0. Credit terms are from the IRS.
- We publish no price forecast. No federal agency forecasts this series and past direction is not a prediction.
- Producer prices are not installed prices. The pass-through to a specific quote varies.
- Nothing here is financial or tax advice.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index series PCU333415333415 and Consumer Price Index CUUR0000SA0, via the BLS Public Data API v2.
- Internal Revenue Service, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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