Category: Price Index

Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

What a million Btu of heat cost, by system

Ranked from cheapest to most expensive, using the same season’s average fuel prices for every system and each system’s federal minimum efficiency.

A million Btu is a unit of heat delivered into the house, so the table compares like with like regardless of fuel. It is not an annual bill, which depends on how much heat your house needs.

The fuel prices behind the numbers

Each price is the average across the October 2025 to March 2026 heating season, converted to a cost per million Btu of fuel using EIA heat content factors.

Delivered cost is the fuel cost divided by efficiency. An 80% furnace needs 1.25 million Btu of gas to put one million Btu into the house. A heat pump with a seasonal coefficient of performance of 2.20 needs only 0.45 million Btu of electricity. Heating oil prices by season are tracked in our heating oil price series.

Efficient is not the same as cheap

Efficiency tells you how much of the fuel becomes heat. Cost per unit of heat also depends on what that fuel costs, and electricity costs far more per Btu than gas.

• Electric resistance turns 100% of electricity into heat, but electricity cost $52.10 per million Btu against $15.05 for gas, so it is the most expensive heat in the table.
• A heat pump moves heat rather than making it. At the HSPF2 7.5 federal minimum it delivers about 2.2 units of heat per unit of electricity, which is why it undercuts resistance heat by more than half.
• Propane and oil furnaces land close together at these prices, roughly 1.9 times the cost of gas heat.
• The 2028 gas furnace standard raises the minimum to 95% AFUE, which cuts delivered cost by about 16% at the same gas price. See the 95% furnace rule.

When a heat pump beats gas

At federal minimum efficiencies and 2025/26 season gas prices, an air-source heat pump matches an 80% gas furnace when electricity costs about 14.1 cents per kWh, and a 95% furnace at about 11.9 cents.

Against propane or oil, the break-even is about 26.2 cents, well above the season’s average electricity price of 17.77 cents. Higher rated heat pumps move the line:

Local prices can swamp all of this. June 2026 residential electricity ranged from 13.11 cents in Nevada to 52.72 cents in Hawaii; see electricity prices by state. Gas prices vary by state too.

Frequently asked questions

Methodology and limitations

Prices are simple averages of EIA observations from October 2025 through March 2026. Heat content factors are EIA’s. Efficiencies are federal minimums from 10 CFR 430.32 and the ENERGY STAR geothermal heat pump criteria. HSPF2 is converted to a seasonal COP by dividing by 3.412.

• National averages; state and utility prices differ, in some cases by several times.
• Minimum efficiencies, not the efficiency of any installed system.
• Excludes equipment cost, installation, fixed charges, delivery fees and distribution losses.

Sources

1. US Energy Information Administration, natural gas residential prices, series N3010US3.
2. US Energy Information Administration, Heating Oil and Propane Update, weekly residential prices.
3. US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.3.
4. US Energy Information Administration, British thermal units, heat content factors.
5. Code of Federal Regulations, 10 CFR 430.32.
6. ENERGY STAR, Geothermal Heat Pumps Key Product Criteria.

The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

The calculation itself is simple. What makes published estimates unreliable is that they fix a rate you almost certainly do not pay.

What electricity actually costs, by state

Residential prices rose 5.0% nationally against June 2025, but the change was far from uniform: some states rose by double digits while others fell.

How to work out your own number

1. Find your rate. Divide the total electricity charge on your bill by the kilowatt hours used. Do not use the headline supply rate, which excludes delivery charges that are often a third or more of the bill.
2. Find the equipment draw. The data plate on the outdoor unit states electrical characteristics. A technician can measure actual running amps, which is more useful than nameplate.
3. Estimate run hours. This is the variable nobody else can supply. It depends on climate, insulation, sizing and thermostat behaviour.
4. Multiply. Kilowatts multiplied by run hours multiplied by your rate.

The third step is why published averages fail. Two identical houses in the same city with different insulation and different thermostat habits can differ by a factor of two in run hours.

What actually moves the number

Run time is the lever, and most of what determines it sits outside the equipment. A correctly sized system in a well sealed house with sound ductwork runs fewer hours than an oversized system in a leaky one, regardless of the rating on either.

Our guides on sizing and ductwork and airflow cover the two that most often go wrong.

Frequently asked questions

Methodology and limitations

Electricity prices are the US Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, average price of electricity to ultimate customers by end-use sector and state, residential column, June 2026 and June 2025, released August 26, 2026.

• These are state averages. Utility territories within a state differ, and time-of-use tariffs differ again.
• We publish no dollars-per-month running cost, because run hours cannot be known from published data.
• Data plate figures describe rated draw, not measured operating draw.

Sources

1. US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, June 2026, released August 26, 2026.
2. US Department of Energy, 10 CFR 430.32, efficiency standards.

The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

By fuel

Those two account for the large majority of US homes. The remainder use propane, fuel oil, wood or other fuels, or have no heating equipment at all.

By equipment

The central warm-air furnace, gas and electric combined, is the main heating equipment in 67.08 million homes, more than four times the heat pump count. Our guide to hydronic systems covers the steam and hot water category.

Why the mix is regional, not national

National shares conceal strong geographic concentration. Gas furnaces dominate where gas distribution exists. Heat pumps concentrate in milder climates where their efficiency advantage holds through the heating season. Steam and hot water systems persist in older Northeast and Midwest housing. Fuel oil is heavily concentrated in the Northeast, which is why the heating oil price series matters far more in some states than others.

Frequently asked questions

Methodology and limitations

All figures are EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, table HC6.1, final data released March 2023, the current published vintage. Shares are computed against 123.53 million total housing units.

• RECS runs every five or six years. 2020 remains current and we do not extrapolate forward.
• Categories describe main heating equipment and fuel. Homes with secondary systems are counted by their main one.
• National shares conceal strong regional concentration in every category.

Sources

1. US Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, table HC6.1.
2. Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release, for shipment share context.

The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

If your system is working, waiting is a reasonable choice. If it is failing, waiting is a bet, and the published data has not rewarded that bet for several years. Here is what each factor actually says.

What the price trend says

Producer prices for HVAC equipment manufacturing rose from an index of 203.0 in 2019 to 324.8 in August 2026, up 60%. Consumer prices rose 31% over the same period, so equipment inflated at roughly twice the general rate.

More to the point for timing: the series has risen in most recent months and the latest reading is its highest since 2019. There is no published federal forecast of a decline, and we do not make one. See our price index analysis for the drivers.

What changed on incentives

Installation date controls, not purchase date, so equipment bought in late 2025 and installed in 2026 does not qualify. Details in what the 25C expiry costs.

What waiting does and does not change

1. Does not lower the price. No published data supports a decline, and the trend has run the other way.
2. Does not restore the tax credit. 25C expired by statute for post-2025 installations.
3. Does narrow refrigerant options over time. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory is finite, though it remains federally installable with no end date.
4. Does risk an emergency replacement. A failure in peak season removes your ability to compare quotes, which is the one lever you fully control.
5. Does preserve capital. The real argument for waiting. If the system works, money not spent is money kept.

Frequently asked questions

Methodology and limitations

Equipment prices are BLS series PCU333415333415, indexed to its 2019 annual average, with month-over-month counts computed from the monthly series since January 2024. Consumer prices are CUUR0000SA0. Credit terms are from the IRS.

• We publish no price forecast. No federal agency forecasts this series and past direction is not a prediction.
• Producer prices are not installed prices. The pass-through to a specific quote varies.
• Nothing here is financial or tax advice.

Sources

1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index series PCU333415333415 and Consumer Price Index CUUR0000SA0, via the BLS Public Data API v2.
2. Internal Revenue Service, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit.

The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

This page does two things. It gives you the part of the cost question that is actually documented, and it shows you how to read a quote so that the number in front of you means something.

What is actually measured

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a producer price index for HVAC equipment manufacturing, series PCU333415333415. It tracks what manufacturers charge, monthly, and it is the only continuous federal measure that bears directly on your quote. It rose from an index of 203.0 in 2019 to 324.8 in August 2026.

Three of the five components that make up your bill are not measured by anyone official. That is the honest answer to why national averages vary so much between sites.

Why quotes rose so much

Equipment producer prices are up 60% since 2019 and 57% since 2020, against 31% for consumer prices generally. Equipment inflated at roughly twice the rate of the wider economy, and it is the largest single input a contractor cannot control.

Labour rose too, but less. Average hourly earnings across plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors went from $30.39 in 2019 to $42.61, about 40%. Our full price index analysis traces the timing and shows the refrigerant transition was not the main driver.

Separately, the federal 25C tax credit that took up to $2,000 off a qualifying heat pump expired for anything placed in service after December 31, 2025. That is an out-of-pocket increase on the same job, and it is covered in what the 25C expiry costs.

How to read the quote in front of you

1. Ask for equipment and labour on separate lines. Equipment is the line that moved. A contractor who can show you the invoice is usually the one not padding.
2. Check whether ductwork is included. Reusing failing ductwork is the most common reason one quote comes in far below the others, and it is a scope difference rather than a saving.
3. Confirm a load calculation was done. Sizing by rule of thumb rather than calculation is how systems end up oversized, which costs money twice.
4. Ask which refrigerant. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory is often cheaper and still legal to install federally. It also commits you to a refrigerant being phased down. See what the rule actually says.
5. Ask about the efficiency tier and your region. Minimum efficiency is set federally and varies by region, so the cheapest legal unit in one state cannot be installed in another.

Methodology and limitations

Equipment prices are BLS series PCU333415333415, indexed to its 2019 annual average. Labour is BLS Current Employment Statistics series CEU2023822003 for NAICS 238220. Consumer prices are CUUR0000SA0.

• Producer prices measure factory-gate charges, not installed prices. The direction is reliable, the pass-through to any one quote is not.
• PCU333415333415 includes commercial and industrial refrigeration equipment alongside residential HVAC.
• NAICS 238220 groups plumbing with heating and air conditioning, and average hourly earnings covers all payroll staff, not only installers.
• We deliberately publish no installed-cost range. No federal series measures one.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry, series PCU333415333415, via the BLS Public Data API v2.
2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, series CEU2023822003, and Consumer Price Index CUUR0000SA0.
3. Internal Revenue Service, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit.

The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.