Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
The heating season opens with equipment prices at a record, gas furnace shipments down 6.2% year to date, and heating oil having closed the last season at its highest level since 2022.
None of those is a forecast. They are the published positions going in, and together they describe a season where the cost side is elevated and the volume side is soft.
Where the indicators stand
| Indicator | Latest published | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| HVAC equipment producer prices | Series high, July 2026 | Rising |
| Gas warm air furnace shipments, YTD | 1,552,934 | Down 6.2% |
| Heating oil, 2025/26 season average | $4.01/gal | Up 9.8% |
| Heating oil season peak | $5.57/gal | Highest since 2022/23 |
The furnace number is the one to watch
Gas furnace shipments were down 6.2% year to date through June at 1,552,934 units against 1,655,417, even though June itself was up 15.2%. A strong month inside a declining year usually means deferral rather than lost demand.
Deferred heating replacement tends to arrive later as emergency work: worse scheduling, less quote comparison, higher stress on the customer relationship. A soft shipment year going into a heating season is not the same as a quiet heating season.
EIA surveys residential heating oil prices weekly from October through March only. The last published reading is $5.57 territory from the close of the 2025/26 season, and nothing new publishes until surveying restarts in October. Any current-sounding summer figure quoted elsewhere is a March reading. See our heating oil index.
Frequently asked questions
What does the 2026-27 heating season look like going in?
Equipment producer prices are at a series high, gas furnace shipments are down 6.2% year to date, and heating oil closed the previous season averaging $4.01 a gallon with a peak of $5.57, its highest since 2022/23. These are published positions rather than a forecast.
Why are furnace shipments down?
AHRI publishes the counts, not the causes. What the data shows is a 6.2% year-to-date decline at 1,552,934 units through June, against a 15.2% rise in June alone. A strong month inside a declining year is a pattern more consistent with deferral than with lost demand.
When will new heating oil prices be published?
October, when EIA resumes weekly residential surveying. The agency surveys only during the October to March heating season, so the last published figure stands from the close of the previous season until then.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index series PCU333415333415.
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release.
- US Energy Information Administration, weekly heating oil series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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