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  • America Had 132.5 Million Homes in 2024

    America Had 132.5 Million Homes in 2024

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    The United States had 132.54 million occupied homes in 2024, up from 123.53 million in 2020, according to the first release of the 2024 Residential Energy Consumption Survey. That is a 7.3% increase in four years.

    One caveat shapes how this data can be used: the March 2026 release covers structural and geographic characteristics, appliances, electronics and lighting. The heating and cooling equipment tables are not part of it. EIA says the fuels and end uses data will be released in spring 2027, so every equipment figure on this site, and everywhere else, is still 2020 vintage.

    132.5MUS homes occupied as a primary residence in 2024
    +7.3%Change since the 2020 survey
    48%Of homes were built before 1980
    2027When 2024 heating and cooling equipment data arrives

    What kind of homes

    Single-family detached houses remain the bulk of the stock at 82.51 million, 62.3% of all homes. Apartments in buildings of five or more units are the second largest group.

    Housing unit type Homes (millions) Share
    Single-family detached 82.51 62.3%
    Apartment, 5 or more units 25.05 18.9%
    Apartment, 2 to 4 units 9.69 7.3%
    Single-family attached 8.65 6.5%
    Mobile home 6.64 5.0%

    That matters for equipment because housing type largely decides what can be installed. A detached house can take ducted central equipment; an apartment in a large building usually cannot, which is where window units and ductless systems concentrate.

    Where the heating and cooling loads are

    The stock splits almost evenly between the coldest and the mixed-humid climate regions, at 42.10 million and 42.02 million homes. Hot-humid covers 25.15 million.

    Climate region Homes (millions) Share
    Very cold or cold 42.10 31.8%
    Mixed-humid 42.02 31.7%
    Hot-humid 25.15 19.0%
    Mixed-dry or hot-dry 16.28 12.3%
    Marine 6.98 5.3%

    This is the distribution behind the regional efficiency rules. Federal minimum SEER2 for split air conditioners is higher in the Southeast and Southwest than in the North, and the split is drawn on installation location. See how the regional standards work.

    By census region, the South holds 51.49 million homes, more than the Northeast and Midwest combined at 51.42 million. 106.30 million homes are urban and 26.23 million rural.

    The stock is old, which is the HVAC story

    63.24 million homes, 47.7% of the total, were built before 1980. Only 6.06 million were built between 2020 and 2024.

    Year of construction Homes (millions) Share
    Before 1950 20.25 15.3%
    1950 to 1959 12.17 9.2%
    1960 to 1969 12.73 9.6%
    1970 to 1979 18.09 13.6%
    1980 to 1989 16.60 12.5%
    1990 to 1999 15.89 12.0%
    2000 to 2009 18.28 13.8%
    2010 to 2019 12.48 9.4%
    2020 to 2024 6.06 4.6%

    Age drives the work. Older houses were not built around the ducts they now contain, they leak more air, and their electrical service was not designed for heat pumps or electric backup heat. That is why sizing and envelope work matter more than equipment selection in most retrofits; see why insulation comes first and how sizing is supposed to be done.

    What is not in this release, and why it matters

    The 2024 survey collected responses from nearly 17,000 households, but EIA is publishing it in stages. The heating equipment, air conditioning and water heating tables, the ones that tell you how many homes run a furnace or a heat pump, are scheduled for spring 2027. Until then, the current equipment figures remain the 2020 survey: 109.51 million homes using air conditioning, 53.26 million heating with a gas central furnace and 16.13 million with a heat pump. Anyone citing 2024 equipment shares is extrapolating.

    How to use these numbers

    Use the 2024 data for the denominator, the size and shape of the housing stock. Use the 2020 data for equipment, and say which vintage you are using.

    Mixing them produces wrong shares. The 2020 equipment counts were drawn against a 123.53 million home base; applying them to 132.54 million homes overstates every total by about 7%. Our own pages use the 2020 base for equipment and will be revised when the 2027 tables land.

    Frequently asked questions

    How many homes are there in the US?

    132.54 million homes were occupied as a primary residence in 2024, according to the EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey released in March 2026. That is up from 123.53 million in the 2020 survey, an increase of 7.3%.

    How old is the US housing stock?

    63.24 million homes, 47.7% of the total, were built before 1980, and 20.25 million before 1950. Only 6.06 million homes were built between 2020 and 2024.

    Does the 2024 survey say how US homes are heated?

    Not yet. The March 2026 release covers structural and geographic characteristics, appliances, electronics and lighting. EIA says fuels and end uses data, which includes heating and cooling equipment, will be released in spring 2027. Equipment figures remain those of the 2020 survey.

    Which climate regions hold the most homes?

    Very cold and cold regions hold 42.10 million homes and mixed-humid 42.02 million, together about 63% of the stock. Hot-humid covers 25.15 million, mixed-dry and hot-dry 16.28 million, and marine 6.98 million.

    Methodology and limitations

    Figures are EIA RECS 2024 table HC2.1, preliminary data released March 2026, compared with RECS 2020 tables HC1.1, HC6.1 and HC7.1. Shares are calculated by The HVAC Brief from published counts.

    • 2024 values are preliminary and may change in the final release.
    • RECS counts homes occupied as a primary residence, so it is not a count of all housing units.
    • Equipment comparisons across the two vintages are not published and we do not construct them.

    Sources

    1. US Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2024, table HC2.1, preliminary release March 2026.
    2. US Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, tables HC1.1, HC6.1 and HC7.1.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Heat Pumps Were 45% of July HVAC Shipments

    Heat Pumps Were 45% of July HVAC Shipments

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    Heat pumps were 45.1% of the central air conditioners and heat pumps shipped in the US in July 2026, and combined shipments rose 20.1% on July 2025 to 916,830 units, according to AHRI’s July statistical release, published September 11, 2026.

    The year-to-date picture is the one worth keeping. Through July, the industry has shipped 126,433 fewer air conditioners and heat pumps than in the same period of 2024, but 142,854 more heat pumps. The category is converting rather than growing.

    45.1%Heat pump share of July shipments
    +20.1%Combined AC and heat pump shipments vs July 2025
    -5.1%Gas furnace shipments, year to date
    45.6%Heat pump share year to date, from 42.1% in 2024

    July shipments

    Every cooling category rose against a weak July 2025, with air conditioners up 22.3% and heat pumps up 17.6%. Both remain below July 2024.

    July shipments 2026 2025 Change 2024
    Air conditioners 503,151 411,530 +22.3% 613,216
    Air-source heat pumps 413,679 351,913 +17.6% 430,204
    Combined 916,830 763,443 +20.1% 1,043,420
    Gas warm air furnaces 265,810 260,224 +2.1% n/a
    Oil warm air furnaces 2,681 1,963 +36.6% n/a

    A 20.1% monthly gain looks dramatic in isolation. Against July 2024 the same month is down 12.1%, which is why we publish the two-year column.

    The two-year comparison, which is the story

    Year to date through July, heat pumps are 142,854 units ahead of 2024 while air conditioners are 269,287 units behind. Net, the combined category is 126,433 units smaller than two years ago.

    Year to date, January to July 2026 2025 2024 2026 vs 2024
    Air conditioners 3,063,290 2,911,784 3,332,577 -269,287
    Air-source heat pumps 2,570,228 2,428,800 2,427,374 +142,854
    Combined 5,633,518 5,340,584 5,759,951 -126,433
    Heat pump share 45.6% 45.5% 42.1% +3.5 pts

    Heat pump share has moved 3.5 percentage points in two years, and almost all of that came from air conditioners rather than from a larger market. We tracked the same pattern in the heat pump share data and in June’s release.

    Furnaces are still falling

    Gas furnace shipments are down 5.1% year to date at 1,818,744 units, although they remain above the 1,718,336 shipped in the same period of 2024.

    Year to date 2026 2025 Change 2024
    Gas warm air furnaces 1,818,744 1,915,641 -5.1% 1,718,336
    Oil warm air furnaces 17,641 15,490 +13.9% 14,094

    Oil furnaces rose 13.9% year to date, but the whole category is 17,641 units, about 103 times smaller than gas. A large percentage move on a small base is not a trend. The 95% AFUE standard arriving in December 2028 is the change that will matter to furnace volumes.

    Water heaters

    Gas storage water heaters rose 5.2% in July while electric fell 3.9%. Year to date both fuels are down.

    Residential storage water heaters July 2026 July 2025 YTD 2026 YTD change
    Gas 333,499 316,999 2,487,389 -2.5%
    Electric 385,594 401,319 2,877,192 -5.2%

    Electric storage shipments are down 5.5% against 2024 as well, so this is a two-year decline rather than a single soft year. Our water heater replacement guide covers what the federal minimums require.

    What these numbers are, and are not

    AHRI aggregates data from member companies that take part in its statistics programme. The figures are factory shipments, not installations, not sales to homeowners and not a measure of the installed base.

    AHRI states that no data by state or region is available to the public beyond what it publishes, and that it does no market forecasting. Shipments can also run ahead of demand when distributors build inventory, which matters in a year when equipment prices are at a series high.

    Frequently asked questions

    How many heat pumps were shipped in July 2026?

    413,679 air-source heat pumps, up 17.6% from 351,913 in July 2025, per AHRI’s July 2026 statistical release. That is 45.1% of the 916,830 central air conditioners and heat pumps shipped in the month.

    Are heat pumps outselling air conditioners?

    Not yet. Year to date through July 2026, heat pumps were 2,570,228 units against 3,063,290 air conditioners, a 45.6% share. That share was 42.1% over the same period in 2024, so the gap is closing.

    Are HVAC shipments growing in 2026?

    Against 2025, yes: combined air conditioner and heat pump shipments are up 5.5% year to date. Against 2024 they are down 126,433 units, or 2.2%, so 2026 is a recovery from a weak 2025 rather than a new high.

    What happened to furnace shipments?

    Gas warm air furnace shipments are down 5.1% year to date at 1,818,744 units, though still above the 1,718,336 shipped in the same period of 2024. Oil furnaces rose 13.9% from a very small base of 15,490 units.

    Methodology and limitations

    All figures are from the AHRI July 2026 US heating and cooling equipment shipment release, published September 11, 2026. Percentage changes against 2025 are AHRI’s; two-year comparisons and share calculations are ours, from AHRI’s published tables.

    • Shipments are factory data from participating AHRI members, not installations or retail sales.
    • AHRI publishes no state or regional breakdown and does no forecasting.
    • Units under 65,000 Btu/h are residential in AHRI’s tables; 65,000 and above are commercial.

    Sources

    1. Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, July 2026 US heating and cooling equipment shipment data, published September 11, 2026.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Electricity Prices Rose in 46 States in June 2026

    Electricity Prices Rose in 46 States in June 2026

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    Residential electricity averaged 18.34 cents per kilowatt hour in the US in June 2026, up 5.0% from 17.47 cents a year earlier, and prices rose in 46 of 51 states including the District of Columbia.

    The increases were uneven. Hawaii rose 28.7% and Idaho 19.1%, while Connecticut fell 10.6%. Figures are from the EIA Electric Power Monthly released in August 2026.

    18.34¢US residential average, June 2026, per kWh
    +5.0%Change on June 2025
    46 of 51States with higher prices than a year earlier
    52.72¢Hawaii, the highest state price

    The biggest increases

    Hawaii led by a wide margin. Ten states saw residential prices rise by 10.2% or more on the year.

    State June 2026 (cents/kWh) June 2025 Change
    Hawaii 52.72 40.96 +28.7%
    Idaho 14.37 12.07 +19.1%
    Washington 14.91 12.96 +15.0%
    New Hampshire 27.01 23.51 +14.9%
    Maryland 21.84 19.29 +13.2%
    Virginia 17.22 15.23 +13.1%
    New York 29.49 26.55 +11.1%
    Michigan 22.99 20.82 +10.4%
    Pennsylvania 21.73 19.69 +10.4%
    North Carolina 14.74 13.38 +10.2%

    Where prices fell

    Only 5 jurisdictions paid less than a year earlier, and Connecticut accounted for the only double-digit decline.

    State June 2026 (cents/kWh) June 2025 Change
    Arizona 15.18 15.23 -0.3%
    Florida 15.10 15.35 -1.6%
    West Virginia 15.45 15.82 -2.3%
    Massachusetts 29.61 30.33 -2.4%
    Connecticut 24.32 27.19 -10.6%

    The EIA table reports prices, not causes, and we do not attribute these moves to any single factor.

    The national trend in 2026

    Every month of 2026 so far has been more expensive than the same month of 2025. The year-to-date average is 18.16 cents, up 7.4%, and the 12 months to June averaged 17.90 cents, up 6.6%.

    Month 2025 (cents/kWh) 2026 Change
    January 15.94 17.45 +9.5%
    February 16.43 17.65 +7.4%
    March 17.09 18.56 +8.6%
    April 17.55 18.83 +7.3%
    May 17.37 18.44 +6.2%
    June 17.47 18.34 +5.0%

    The annual average rose from 13.01 cents in 2019 to 17.30 cents in 2025, an increase of 33.0%.

    What it means for air conditioning and heat pumps

    Electricity price is half of any running cost calculation, and in June it varied about 4-fold between Nevada and Hawaii. That spread matters more to a cooling bill than the difference between two efficiency ratings.

    For heating, it decides whether a heat pump beats gas. At federal minimum efficiencies and 2025/26 heating season gas prices, a heat pump matches an 80% gas furnace at about 14.1 cents per kWh. See what heat costs by fuel, what air conditioning costs to run and heat pump versus gas furnace.

    Every state, ranked by price

    19 states paid more than the US average of 18.34 cents in June 2026. Nevada had the lowest average at 13.11 cents.

    State June 2026 (cents/kWh) June 2025 Change
    US average 18.34 17.47 +5.0%
    Hawaii 52.72 40.96 +28.7%
    California 34.74 33.59 +3.4%
    Massachusetts 29.61 30.33 -2.4%
    Maine 29.59 28.14 +5.2%
    New York 29.49 26.55 +11.1%
    Rhode Island 29.23 26.84 +8.9%
    Alaska 28.21 26.87 +5.0%
    New Hampshire 27.01 23.51 +14.9%
    New Jersey 24.95 24.88 +0.3%
    Vermont 24.44 23.00 +6.3%
    District of Columbia 24.39 22.70 +7.4%
    Connecticut 24.32 27.19 -10.6%
    Michigan 22.99 20.82 +10.4%
    Maryland 21.84 19.29 +13.2%
    Pennsylvania 21.73 19.69 +10.4%
    Illinois 19.89 18.29 +8.7%
    Wisconsin 19.56 18.52 +5.6%
    Delaware 19.29 18.16 +6.2%
    Ohio 19.19 17.50 +9.7%
    Minnesota 17.52 17.12 +2.3%
    Indiana 17.51 16.48 +6.2%
    Virginia 17.22 15.23 +13.1%
    Colorado 17.13 16.04 +6.8%
    Alabama 16.40 16.06 +2.1%
    Georgia 16.36 15.96 +2.5%
    Oregon 16.32 15.80 +3.3%
    Missouri 16.22 15.91 +1.9%
    Texas 15.94 15.26 +4.5%
    Iowa 15.93 15.33 +3.9%
    Kansas 15.71 15.04 +4.5%
    South Carolina 15.55 14.79 +5.1%
    West Virginia 15.45 15.82 -2.3%
    South Dakota 15.36 14.22 +8.0%
    Wyoming 15.24 14.89 +2.4%
    Arizona 15.18 15.23 -0.3%
    Montana 15.14 14.81 +2.2%
    Florida 15.10 15.35 -1.6%
    New Mexico 15.06 14.68 +2.6%
    Washington 14.91 12.96 +15.0%
    Mississippi 14.88 14.07 +5.8%
    North Carolina 14.74 13.38 +10.2%
    Idaho 14.37 12.07 +19.1%
    Oklahoma 14.33 13.63 +5.1%
    Kentucky 14.26 13.40 +6.4%
    North Dakota 14.12 13.71 +3.0%
    Arkansas 14.12 13.37 +5.6%
    Tennessee 14.07 13.82 +1.8%
    Louisiana 13.49 12.74 +5.9%
    Utah 13.37 13.10 +2.1%
    Nebraska 13.25 13.14 +0.8%
    Nevada 13.11 12.26 +6.9%

    Frequently asked questions

    What is the average electricity price in the US?

    18.34 cents per kilowatt hour for residential customers in June 2026, up 5.0% from 17.47 cents in June 2025, according to the EIA Electric Power Monthly. The 2026 year-to-date average was 18.16 cents.

    Which state has the highest electricity prices?

    Hawaii, at 52.72 cents per kWh in June 2026, up 28.7% on a year earlier. The next highest were California at 34.74 cents and Massachusetts at 29.61 cents.

    Which state has the cheapest electricity?

    Nevada had the lowest residential average in June 2026 at 13.11 cents per kWh, followed by Nebraska at 13.25 cents and Utah at 13.37 cents. Monthly rankings shift with seasonal rate structures.

    Did electricity prices go up in 2026?

    Yes. The US residential average was higher in every month from January to June 2026 than a year earlier, and prices rose in 46 of 51 states in June. The year-to-date average was up 7.4%.

    Methodology and limitations

    State figures are EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A, average price of electricity to ultimate customers by end-use sector, residential, June 2026 and June 2025. National monthly and annual figures are Table 5.3. Changes are calculated by The HVAC Brief.

    • The 51 jurisdictions are the 50 states and the District of Columbia; census division subtotals are excluded.
    • Recent EIA monthly values are preliminary and may be revised.
    • Average price is revenue divided by sales and includes delivery; it is not a tariff rate for any customer.
    • June prices reflect summer rate structures and are not a heating season comparison.

    Sources

    1. US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Tables 5.3 and 5.6.A, August 2026.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • HVAC Equipment Prices Set a New High in August

    HVAC Equipment Prices Set a New High in August

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    Producer prices for HVAC equipment rose 0.26% in August 2026 to an index of 324.82, the highest reading in the Bureau of Labor Statistics series. Prices were 3.9% higher than a year earlier and 60.0% above the 2019 average.

    BLS also revised July down, from 324.903 to 323.984. The July gain is now 0.94%, not the 1.23% first reported, and August, not July, holds the record.

    324.8HVAC equipment PPI, August 2026, a series high
    +3.9%Change on August 2025
    +60%Change since the 2019 average
    21 of 31Monthly increases since January 2024

    The August reading

    The index edged up 0.84 points in August 2026, a smaller move than July’s but enough to set a new high above the revised July figure of 323.984.

    Month Index Month on month Year on year
    January 2026 313.036 +0.37% +5.0%
    February 2026 316.782 +1.20% +5.5%
    March 2026 319.543 +0.87% +6.7%
    April 2026 320.385 +0.26% +5.4%
    May 2026 320.638 +0.08% +4.0%
    June 2026 320.966 +0.10% +2.9%
    July 2026 323.984 +0.94% +4.1%
    August 2026 324.820 +0.26% +3.9%

    Since December 2025, the index is up 4.2%. Prices have risen in 21 of the 31 month-on-month comparisons since January 2024, so the direction has been persistent rather than a single step.

    Monthly HVAC equipment producer price index, January 2025 to August 20263003103203302025-01: 298.02025-02: 300.12025-03: 299.62025-04: 304.02025-05: 308.22025-06: 311.82025-07: 311.32025-08: 312.62025-09: 309.82025-10: 312.02025-11: 312.32025-12: 311.92026-01: 313.02026-02: 316.82026-03: 319.52026-04: 320.42026-05: 320.62026-06: 321.02026-07: 324.02026-08: 324.82025-012025-042025-072025-102026-012026-042026-072026-08
    BLS producer price index PCU333415333415, air conditioning, refrigeration and forced air heating equipment manufacturing, not seasonally adjusted. The latest month is highlighted. Chart by The HVAC Brief.

    What changed in July

    July was revised down by 0.919 points. The month still rose, but by less, and it no longer holds the series high.

    July 2026 First published Revised
    Index 324.903 323.984
    Change on June +1.23% +0.94%
    Series high at the time Yes Superseded by August 2026

    Producer price indexes are preliminary when first published, and BLS revises recent months as late survey responses arrive. We have added a correction note to our July report and updated the pages that cited the first figure.

    Heating equipment set a record too

    The separate BLS commodity index for heating equipment, WPU106, rose 0.65% in August 2026 to 440.459, its highest reading.

    Index August 2026 Month on month Year on year Since 2019
    HVAC equipment manufacturing, PCU333415333415 324.82 +0.26% +3.9% +60.0%
    Heating equipment, WPU106 440.46 +0.65% +2.5% +57.7%

    The two indexes overlap but are not the same: the first covers the output of an industry, the second a group of products wherever they are made.

    Against general inflation

    Equipment prices are still outrunning consumer prices. The consumer price index rose 3.4% in the year to July 2026, against 3.9% for HVAC equipment in the year to August 2026.

    Over the longer run the gap is wider: HVAC equipment producer prices are up 60% since 2019, consumer prices 31%. Our HVAC price index tracks both series month by month.

    What it means for buyers

    This is a factory-gate price, not what a homeowner pays. Increases reach installed prices through distributors and contractors, with a lag and alongside labour and refrigerant costs that this index does not include.

    No federal series measures installed system prices, which is why we do not publish one. For how the pieces add up, see what HVAC replacement costs in 2026, and for the timing question, whether to replace now or wait.

    Frequently asked questions

    Are HVAC equipment prices still going up?

    Yes. The BLS producer price index for HVAC equipment manufacturing rose 0.26% in August 2026 to 324.82, a series high, and was 3.9% above a year earlier. Prices have risen in 21 of 31 monthly comparisons since January 2024.

    What was the HVAC equipment PPI in August 2026?

    324.820 for BLS series PCU333415333415, not seasonally adjusted. That is up 0.26% on the revised July figure of 323.984 and 60.0% above the 2019 average of 203.04.

    Why was the July 2026 figure revised?

    Producer price indexes are preliminary when first released, and BLS revises recent months as late survey responses come in. July moved from 324.903 to 323.984, which cut its monthly gain from 1.23% to 0.94%.

    How much have HVAC equipment prices risen since 2019?

    About 60%. The producer price index went from a 2019 average of 203.04 to 324.82 in August 2026. Consumer prices rose about 31% over a similar period.

    Methodology and limitations

    Figures are BLS producer price indexes PCU333415333415 and WPU106 and consumer price index CUUR0000SA0, all not seasonally adjusted, retrieved from the BLS public data API in September 2026. Percentage changes are calculated by The HVAC Brief from index values.

    • Recent PPI months are preliminary and may be revised again.
    • 2019 comparisons use the simple average of the twelve monthly values.
    • Producer prices are not retail or installed prices.

    Sources

    1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, series PCU333415333415 and WPU106.
    2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, series CUUR0000SA0.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • The A2L Transition at 20 Months: Manufacturing Settled, Service Not

    The A2L Transition at 20 Months: Manufacturing Settled, Service Not

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Status report

    Twenty months into the A2L transition, the manufacturing side is settled and the service side is not. New residential equipment moved to R-454B and similar blends on January 1, 2025. The installed base is still overwhelmingly R-410A, and will be for years.

    What changed most recently is the installation rule: EPA removed the cutoff on pre-2025 inventory effective July 27, 2026, so both refrigerants are being installed simultaneously.

    Where each piece stands

    Element Status
    New residential equipment manufacture Must be under 700 GWP since January 1, 2025
    Installing pre-2025 R-410A inventory Permitted federally, no end date, since July 27, 2026
    Servicing existing R-410A systems Legal, using produced or reclaimed refrigerant
    EPA 608 certification Unchanged. No A2L-specific federal certification exists
    Refrigerant supply Capped at 60% of baseline, dropping to 30% in 2029
    Trade measures on imported refrigerant Antidumping orders on HFC blends and R-32 maintained in 2026

    The gap nobody legislated

    EPA Section 608 requirements did not change when the refrigerants did. A technician certified in 2015 holds a valid certification that says nothing about A2L handling, storage or tooling. The regulatory framework treats certification as current while the field material has changed underneath it.

    That is not a compliance failure, it is a training gap, and it sits with employers rather than with the certification scheme. See what 608 actually covers and what A2L changes in practice.

    Both refrigerants, same van

    Because pre-2025 inventory remains installable with no federal end date, a contractor can be installing R-454B on Monday and R-410A on Tuesday. That means A2L-rated tooling and recovery equipment alongside the existing kit, not instead of it, for as long as the inventory lasts.

    Frequently asked questions

    Where does the A2L transition stand in 2026?

    New residential equipment has been under the 700 GWP limit since January 1, 2025, so it ships with R-454B or similar. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory remains installable federally with no end date after an EPA rule effective July 27, 2026. The installed base is still overwhelmingly R-410A.

    Do technicians need new certification for A2L?

    No federal A2L-specific certification exists. EPA Section 608 requirements were unchanged by the transition, so an existing certification remains valid. The gap is training rather than certification, and it sits with employers.

    Can contractors install both R-410A and R-454B equipment?

    Yes. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory remains installable federally with no end date, while new equipment ships with A2L refrigerant. That means carrying A2L-rated tooling and recovery equipment alongside existing kit rather than replacing it.

    Sources

    1. 40 CFR 84.54 and EPA final rule 91 FR 31284, effective July 27, 2026; 40 CFR 84.7 phasedown schedule.
    2. 40 CFR 82.161, technician certification.
    3. US Department of Commerce, 91 FR 48079 and 91 FR 51658, antidumping proceedings.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • The Heating Season Opens With Prices High and Shipments Soft

    The Heating Season Opens With Prices High and Shipments Soft

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Season preview

    The heating season opens with equipment prices at a record, gas furnace shipments down 6.2% year to date, and heating oil having closed the last season at its highest level since 2022.

    None of those is a forecast. They are the published positions going in, and together they describe a season where the cost side is elevated and the volume side is soft.

    Where the indicators stand

    Indicator Latest published Direction
    HVAC equipment producer prices Series high, July 2026 Rising
    Gas warm air furnace shipments, YTD 1,552,934 Down 6.2%
    Heating oil, 2025/26 season average $4.01/gal Up 9.8%
    Heating oil season peak $5.57/gal Highest since 2022/23

    The furnace number is the one to watch

    Gas furnace shipments were down 6.2% year to date through June at 1,552,934 units against 1,655,417, even though June itself was up 15.2%. A strong month inside a declining year usually means deferral rather than lost demand.

    Deferred heating replacement tends to arrive later as emergency work: worse scheduling, less quote comparison, higher stress on the customer relationship. A soft shipment year going into a heating season is not the same as a quiet heating season.

    When the oil data resumes

    EIA surveys residential heating oil prices weekly from October through March only. The last published reading is $5.57 territory from the close of the 2025/26 season, and nothing new publishes until surveying restarts in October. Any current-sounding summer figure quoted elsewhere is a March reading. See our heating oil index.

    Frequently asked questions

    What does the 2026-27 heating season look like going in?

    Equipment producer prices are at a series high, gas furnace shipments are down 6.2% year to date, and heating oil closed the previous season averaging $4.01 a gallon with a peak of $5.57, its highest since 2022/23. These are published positions rather than a forecast.

    Why are furnace shipments down?

    AHRI publishes the counts, not the causes. What the data shows is a 6.2% year-to-date decline at 1,552,934 units through June, against a 15.2% rise in June alone. A strong month inside a declining year is a pattern more consistent with deferral than with lost demand.

    When will new heating oil prices be published?

    October, when EIA resumes weekly residential surveying. The agency surveys only during the October to March heating season, so the last published figure stands from the close of the previous season until then.

    Sources

    1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index series PCU333415333415.
    2. Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release.
    3. US Energy Information Administration, weekly heating oil series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • The HVAC Compliance Calendar Through 2036

    The HVAC Compliance Calendar Through 2036

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Compliance calendar

    Four dated federal changes are already scheduled for HVAC between 2027 and 2036, and the two that matter most to residential contractors are December 18, 2028 and January 1, 2029.

    The first requires 95% AFUE gas furnaces. The second halves HFC production allowances. They land eleven days apart.

    Date What happens Citation
    January 1, 2027 End of the VRF sell-through for systems whose components were built before January 1, 2026. 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2)
    January 1, 2028 Extended VRF sell-through ends where a building permit issued before October 5, 2023 specified the refrigerant. 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2)
    December 18, 2028 Non-weatherized and mobile home gas furnaces must meet 95% AFUE, up from 80%. 10 CFR 430.32(e)
    January 1, 2029 HFC production and consumption allowances drop from 60% to 30% of baseline. 40 CFR 84.7
    2034 and 2036 Allowances step down again to 20%, then 15% of baseline. 40 CFR 84.7

    Why the two 2028-29 dates interact

    A contractor replacing a gas furnace after December 2028 is installing condensing equipment, which vents through plastic pipe to a sidewall rather than up a chimney. In houses where the furnace shared a chimney with an atmospheric water heater, that leaves the water heater on an oversized flue. See why the venting change is the real problem.

    Two weeks later, refrigerant allowances halve. A business planning capital equipment, training and stock for that period is planning for both at once. See our phasedown schedule.

    What is not on this calendar

    No federal end date exists for installing pre-2025 R-410A residential inventory. EPA removed that cutoff effective July 27, 2026. State rules can differ, and several states run their own HFC programmes that are stricter than the federal position.

    Frequently asked questions

    What HVAC rules are coming in 2028 and 2029?

    Two significant ones eleven days apart. Non-weatherized and mobile home gas furnaces manufactured on or after December 18, 2028 must meet 95% AFUE, up from 80%. On January 1, 2029, HFC production and consumption allowances drop from 60% of baseline to 30% under 40 CFR 84.7.

    When does the VRF sell-through end?

    January 1, 2027 for systems whose components were manufactured or imported before January 1, 2026, extending to January 1, 2028 where a building permit issued before October 5, 2023 specified the restricted refrigerant, under 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2).

    Is there a deadline for installing R-410A equipment?

    Not federally. EPA removed the installation cutoff effective July 27, 2026, so equipment manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025 may continue to be installed with no federal end date. Several states operate stricter programmes.

    Sources

    1. US Environmental Protection Agency, 40 CFR 84.7 and 40 CFR 84.54.
    2. US Department of Energy, 10 CFR 430.32(e), furnaces and boilers.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Every HVAC Rule That Took Effect in 2026, With Dates

    Every HVAC Rule That Took Effect in 2026, With Dates

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Compliance calendar

    Four federal changes affecting HVAC took effect during 2026, and one of them removed a deadline rather than imposing one. Each is dated below with its citation.

    The pattern is worth noting: the year tightened equipment efficiency and refrigerant handling for larger systems while loosening the installation constraint on existing residential inventory.

    Date What changed Citation
    January 1, 2026 Refrigerant leak repair requirements begin for appliances with 15 or more pounds of charge. Residential and light commercial AC and heat pumps are explicitly excluded. 40 CFR 84.106
    January 1, 2026 Variable refrigerant flow systems using refrigerant with GWP of 700 or greater restricted, with sell-through provisions. 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2)
    May 26, 2026 New room air conditioner efficiency minimums apply to units manufactured from this date, rising 19% to 50% by class. 10 CFR 430.32(b)
    July 27, 2026 EPA rule takes effect allowing pre-2025 R-410A residential inventory to continue being installed, removing the previous cutoff. 91 FR 31284

    The one that removed a constraint

    The July 27 rule is the outlier. It allows equipment manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025 to continue being installed, with no federal end date. A large amount of published guidance still describes the deadline it removed. See what the rule actually says.

    The one most often misread

    The leak repair requirements are frequently reported as applying to homes. They do not. The section applies at 15 or more pounds of charge and explicitly excludes residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump equipment. See who is actually covered.

    What did not change

    SEER2 minimums for central equipment, in force since January 1, 2023, were unchanged during 2026. The federal 25C tax credit did not return; it expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. And EPA Section 608 certification requirements were unchanged despite the shift to A2L refrigerants.

    Frequently asked questions

    What HVAC regulations changed in 2026?

    Four federal changes: refrigerant leak repair requirements began January 1 for appliances with 15 or more pounds of charge, VRF restrictions began January 1, new room air conditioner efficiency minimums applied from May 26, and an EPA rule effective July 27 removed the installation cutoff for pre-2025 R-410A residential inventory.

    Did the R-410A installation deadline go away?

    Yes, federally. An EPA final rule effective July 27, 2026 allows residential and light commercial equipment manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025 to continue being installed, with no federal end date set. Some states impose stricter rules.

    Do the 2026 leak rules apply to home air conditioning?

    No. 40 CFR 84.106 applies at 15 or more pounds of charge and explicitly excludes residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump equipment. Venting and recovery rules under 40 CFR part 82 apply regardless.

    Sources

    1. 40 CFR 84.106 and 40 CFR 84.54; EPA final rule 91 FR 31284, effective July 27, 2026.
    2. 10 CFR 430.32(b), room air conditioner standards.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • HVAC Contractor Employment Reaches 1,355,400, Wages Hit $42.61

    HVAC Contractor Employment Reaches 1,355,400, Wages Hit $42.61

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The data

    Employment at plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors reached about 1,355,400 in the latest reading, and average hourly earnings at those firms hit $42.61. Both are up substantially on 2019: employment by 18.8% and earnings by 40.2%.

    Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts 409,670 people in the narrower HVAC mechanic and installer occupation, at a median of $29.33 an hour.

    These are two different measures and they get conflated. The contractor employment series counts everyone on the payroll including office and supervisory staff. The occupation series counts people doing the installation and repair work.

    The latest readings

    Measure Latest 2019 Change
    Contractor employment, NAICS 238220 1,355,400 1,140,992 +18.8%
    Average hourly earnings, NAICS 238220 $42.61 $30.39 +40.2%
    HVAC mechanics and installers, SOC 49-9021 409,670 n/a median $29.33/hr

    What the combination says

    Employment and wages rising together is not the signature of a shrinking trade. It is the signature of competition for experienced people inside a growing one. A workforce that added roughly a fifth of its headcount while pay outpaced the wider private economy is expanding, whatever hiring difficulty individual firms report.

    That distinction matters for how a business responds. A genuine shortage argues for recruitment spending. Competition for experienced staff argues for retention and training economics. Our pay analysis compares the trajectory against construction overall and the whole private economy.

    The measure to quote carefully

    If you see a technician headcount and a wage figure quoted together, check they come from the same series. The contractor employment number and the occupation number differ by hundreds of thousands of people because they count different populations, and mixing them produces a wage per worker that describes nobody.

    Frequently asked questions

    How many people work in HVAC?

    About 1,355,400 people are employed by plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors as of July 2026, a figure that includes office and supervisory staff. The narrower occupation of HVAC mechanics and installers, SOC 49-9021, counted 409,670 people in the May 2025 BLS release.

    Are HVAC wages still rising?

    Yes. Average hourly earnings at plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors reached $42.61 as of July 2026, up 40.2% from $30.39 in 2019. The median for the mechanic and installer occupation specifically was $29.33 an hour in May 2025.

    Is there an HVAC labour shortage?

    The national data shows a growing workforce rather than a shrinking one: employment up 18.8% since 2019 with wages up 40.2% over the same period. Individual firms report real hiring difficulty, but that pattern describes competition for experienced people inside a growing trade.

    Sources

    1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NAICS 238220, series CEU2023822001 and CEU2023822003; Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, SOC 49-9021, May 2025, via the BLS Public Data API v2.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Three Federal Actions in Six Weeks All Squeeze Refrigerant Supply

    Three Federal Actions in Six Weeks All Squeeze Refrigerant Supply

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Analysis

    Three separate federal actions in six weeks all point the same direction on refrigerant supply, and none of them is a refrigerant rule. Two are trade measures on Chinese imports and one is a scheduled production cap already in the CFR.

    Individually each is routine. Together they describe a market where imported supply stays constrained by duties while domestic production is capped and stepping down, at the moment demand shifts toward a molecule that sits at the centre of both.

    The three actions

    Date Action Citation
    July 30, 2026 Final results, antidumping review on HFC blends from China 91 FR 48079
    August 11, 2026 Continuation of antidumping order on R-32 from China 91 FR 51658
    Standing, in force HFC production capped at 60% of baseline, dropping to 30% in 2029 40 CFR 84.7

    Why R-32 is the pinch point

    R-32 is roughly two thirds of R-454B by weight and half of R-410A. The A2L transition moved new residential equipment onto a blend that is mostly R-32, while the installed base still runs on a blend that is half R-32. Demand for the same molecule sits on both sides of the transition.

    The phasedown compounds it. Because the cap is measured in exchange value equivalent, weighted by global warming potential, R-410A at a GWP of 2,088 consumes far more allowance per pound than lower-GWP alternatives. Servicing the existing base is expensive in allowance terms precisely when allowances are being reduced.

    What we are not saying

    We are not forecasting refrigerant prices. None of these documents contains a price projection and we do not publish one. What the documents establish is the direction of the constraints: import measures maintained, domestic production capped, next reduction dated January 1, 2029.

    What a contractor can actually do with this

    1. Treat refrigerant as a scheduled cost input rather than an incidental one, particularly on service agreements priced a year ahead.
    2. Put the phasedown in writing when selling R-410A inventory, which remains legally installable. See what the rule says.
    3. Find leaks rather than recharging. Every avoidable recharge draws on a constrained supply.
    4. Watch the 2029 step, when allowances halve. It is the dated event in this picture, not a forecast.

    Frequently asked questions

    Is there a refrigerant shortage in 2026?

    We do not claim one. What is documented is that antidumping measures on Chinese HFC blends and R-32 were maintained in July and August 2026, while domestic HFC production is capped at 60% of baseline under 40 CFR 84.7 and scheduled to drop to 30% on January 1, 2029. Those are constraints on supply, not an observed shortage.

    Why does R-32 matter so much?

    It is roughly two thirds of R-454B, the A2L blend now used in most new residential equipment, and half of R-410A, which the installed base runs on. Demand for the same molecule sits on both sides of the refrigerant transition.

    Will refrigerant prices go up?

    We make no forecast, and none of the underlying documents contains one. Commerce publishes duty determinations and EPA publishes allowance schedules, neither of which projects prices.

    Methodology

    This piece synthesises three primary documents named in the table above. The R-32 and R-454B composition figures are standard blend compositions. The R-410A global warming potential of 2,088 is the figure EPA used in the Technology Transitions rulemaking. No price data is used because no federal series tracks residential refrigerant pricing.

    Sources

    1. US Department of Commerce, 91 FR 48079, July 30, 2026, docket A-570-028; and 91 FR 51658, August 11, 2026, docket A-570-121.
    2. US Environmental Protection Agency, 40 CFR 84.7, phasedown schedule.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.