Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
US shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps rose 21.7% in June 2026 to 1,023,571 units, but the year to date is up only 3.0%. Gas furnace shipments are down 6.2% across the same six months, and water heater shipments fell on both fuels.
One number puts the year in context. Combined AC and heat pump shipments through June total 4,716,688 units. The same period in 2024 totalled 4,716,531. That is a difference of 157 units across roughly 4.7 million, or about 0.003%. Two years of movement, no net growth.
The Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute published its June 2026 shipment data on August 14. The monthly figure is strong enough to generate optimistic headlines on its own. Read against the year, and against 2024, it looks more like volatility inside a flat market than a recovery.
What June actually showed
Combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps reached 1,023,571 units in June 2026, up 21.7% from 840,769 in June 2025. Air conditioners alone rose 26.8% to 605,033 units. Heat pumps rose 15.1% to 418,538.
Gas warm air furnaces also had a strong month, up 15.2% to 320,281 units from 278,043. Oil warm air furnaces, a much smaller category, rose 5.3% to 2,170.
| Equipment | June 2026 | June 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central AC and air-source heat pumps | 1,023,571 | 840,769 | +21.7% |
| Air conditioners only | 605,033 | 477,270 | +26.8% |
| Air-source heat pumps only | 418,538 | 363,499 | +15.1% |
| Gas warm air furnaces | 320,281 | 278,043 | +15.2% |
Why the year tells a different story
Year-to-date combined AC and heat pump shipments are 4,716,688 units, up 3.0% from 4,577,141 in the same period of 2025. A 21.7% month inside a 3.0% year means the earlier months were weak enough to absorb most of June’s gain.
Furnaces show the divergence more sharply. June gas furnace shipments rose 15.2%, but the year-to-date total of 1,552,934 units is down 6.2% from 1,655,417. A strong month has not changed the direction of the year.
Against 2025, this year is up 3.0%. Against 2024, it is flat to four significant figures: 4,716,688 units this year versus 4,716,531 in 2024, a gap of 157 units. The 2025 comparison looks like growth mainly because 2025 was the weaker year. Two years on, the market has not grown.
Water heaters fell on both fuels
Residential storage water heaters moved in the opposite direction over the year. Gas shipments are down 3.6% year to date at 2,153,890 units, against 2,233,304 in 2025. Electric shipments are down 5.4% at 2,491,598, from 2,634,037.
June itself was positive for both, with gas up 6.7% to 363,347 and electric up 0.8% to 422,813. The same pattern as the cooling categories: a decent month inside a declining year.
| Year to date, through June | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central AC and air-source heat pumps | 4,716,688 | 4,577,141 | +3.0% |
| Gas warm air furnaces | 1,552,934 | 1,655,417 | -6.2% |
| Residential gas storage water heaters | 2,153,890 | 2,233,304 | -3.6% |
| Residential electric storage water heaters | 2,491,598 | 2,634,037 | -5.4% |
What this means for contractors
Shipments measure what manufacturers send to distribution, not what gets installed. They lead installed demand and they also reflect channel stocking decisions, so a jump can mean distributors are rebuilding inventory rather than that homeowners are buying more.
Set the volume picture against pricing. Unit shipments are flat over two years while equipment producer prices have risen about 60% since 2019. Manufacturer revenue can grow comfortably on price alone while the number of boxes leaving the factory stays still. That is a different market from a growing one, and it argues for defending margin per job rather than planning for volume.
The furnace divergence is worth watching into the heating season. A 6.2% year-to-date decline against a 15.2% June suggests replacement demand is being deferred rather than lost, which tends to arrive later as emergency work at higher margin and worse scheduling.
Methodology
All figures are from the AHRI June 2026 Statistical Release, dated August 14, 2026, retrieved as a PDF from ahrinet.org. AHRI compiles shipment data from participating manufacturers. Percentage changes are AHRI’s own; the 2024 comparison and the two-year observation are ours, calculated from the year-to-date table in the same release.
Limitations
- Shipments are not installations. They measure movement into distribution and include channel stocking.
- AHRI data covers participating manufacturers, so it is close to but not identical with the whole market.
- Monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted, so month-over-month reads carry seasonal noise. Comparisons here are year-over-year or year-to-date.
- Categories are not additive across equipment types, and water heaters are a separate market from space conditioning.
Frequently asked questions
How many air conditioners and heat pumps shipped in June 2026?
Combined US shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps were 1,023,571 units in June 2026, up 21.7% from 840,769 in June 2025. Air conditioners accounted for 605,033 units and air-source heat pumps for 418,538, per the AHRI June 2026 Statistical Release.
Is the HVAC equipment market growing in 2026?
Barely. Year-to-date combined AC and heat pump shipments are up 3.0% against 2025, but at 4,716,688 units they are within 157 units of the same period in 2024. Gas furnace shipments are down 6.2% year to date, and residential water heaters are down on both fuels.
Why did June shipments jump so much?
AHRI publishes the counts, not the causes, so any explanation is inference. A 21.7% year-over-year rise inside a 3.0% year indicates weak earlier months rather than a demand surge, and shipments include distributor stocking decisions as well as end demand.
Do shipment figures tell you what homeowners are buying?
Not directly. Shipments track units moving from manufacturers into distribution, which leads installed demand by some weeks or months and reflects inventory decisions. Installed volume and consumer demand are related but separate measures that AHRI does not publish.
Sources
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release, published August 14, 2026. Public data also available in Excel from AHRI.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry, series PCU333415333415, for the pricing comparison.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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