Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
Heat pumps have taken 3.4 points of shipment share from air conditioners in two years, and the total market has not grown at all. Through June 2026, heat pumps were 45.7% of combined US shipments, against 42.3% in the same period of 2024.
The substitution is almost exact. Air conditioner shipments fell by 159,222 units between the 2024 and 2026 year-to-date figures. Heat pump shipments rose by 159,379. The combined total moved by 157 units.
Most coverage of heat pump adoption reports the growth rate and stops. The growth rate on its own is misleading, because it does not say whether heat pumps are expanding the market or replacing air conditioners inside a fixed one. The AHRI year-to-date table answers that directly, and the answer is replacement.
Heat pumps gained almost exactly what air conditioners lost
Between the January-to-June periods of 2024 and 2026, air conditioner shipments fell 159,222 units while air-source heat pump shipments rose 159,379. Net change across the combined category: 157 units on a base of about 4.7 million, or 0.003%.
That is a market converting rather than growing. Every additional heat pump leaving a factory is very nearly matched by an air conditioner that did not.
| Year to date through June | Air conditioners | Heat pumps | Combined | Heat pump share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2,719,361 | 1,997,170 | 4,716,531 | 42.3% |
| 2025 | 2,500,254 | 2,076,887 | 4,577,141 | 45.4% |
| 2026 | 2,560,139 | 2,156,549 | 4,716,688 | 45.7% |
| 2024 to 2026 change | -159,222 | +159,379 | +157 | +3.4 pts |
Shipment share is not installed base
Heat pumps take nearly half of new shipments but heat only 16.13 million of 123.53 million US homes, about 13.1%. Natural gas central furnaces remain the main heating equipment in 53.26 million homes, more than three times as many.
Those figures come from the EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey for 2020, the current published vintage for equipment data. The gap between shipment share and installed share is what a slow-moving stock looks like: equipment lasts fifteen years or more, so even a decisive shift in what ships takes a long time to show up in what is installed.
Two practical consequences follow. Service revenue stays weighted toward gas equipment for years after new sales tip. And any claim that heat pumps have taken over residential heating is describing the shipment mix, not the housing stock. Our verified HVAC industry statistics set out both measures side by side.
Why the total is not growing
Combined AC and heat pump shipments are up 3.0% against 2025 but flat against 2024. Gas warm air furnace shipments are down 6.2% year to date. Residential water heater shipments fell on both fuels. Volume across the category is stagnant.
Prices are the other half of the picture. Producer prices for HVAC equipment have risen about 60% since 2019 while unit volumes have stood still, which means manufacturer revenue can grow on price alone. Our analysis of the price increase traces where that came from and what it means for a quote.
Plan for mix change rather than volume growth. The work is shifting toward heat pump installs and away from straight cooling replacements, but the number of jobs is not rising. That argues for training and stocking around the mix shift, and for defending margin per job, rather than for hiring against expected volume. It also means A2L-capable heat pump competence is becoming table stakes rather than a differentiator.
Methodology
Shipment figures are from the AHRI June 2026 Statistical Release dated August 14, 2026, retrieved as a PDF from ahrinet.org. AHRI publishes the year-to-date table including a prior-prior year column, which is what makes the two-year comparison possible. Share percentages and the 2024 to 2026 changes are ours, calculated from that table. Installed base figures are EIA RECS 2020, tables HC6.1 and HC7.1, final data released March 2023.
Limitations
- Shipments measure units moving from manufacturers into distribution, not installations. They include channel stocking decisions.
- AHRI covers participating manufacturers, so the data is close to but not identical with the whole market.
- The near-exact offset between the air conditioner decline and the heat pump gain is what the published totals show. We do not claim a causal mechanism, because AHRI does not publish one.
- RECS 2020 remains the current vintage for equipment data; the 2024 survey’s heating and cooling tables are due in spring 2027 See what the 2024 survey release covers.. The installed base has moved since 2020 and we do not extrapolate it forward.
- Year-to-date figures cover January to June only and are not seasonally adjusted.
Frequently asked questions
What share of HVAC shipments are heat pumps?
Air-source heat pumps were 45.7% of combined US central air conditioner and heat pump shipments through June 2026, up from 42.3% in the same period of 2024, per the AHRI June 2026 Statistical Release. In absolute terms that is 2,156,549 heat pumps against 2,560,139 air conditioners.
Are heat pumps growing the HVAC market?
No. They are taking share inside a flat market. Air conditioner shipments fell 159,222 units between the 2024 and 2026 year-to-date periods while heat pumps rose 159,379, leaving the combined total 157 units different on a base near 4.7 million.
How many US homes have a heat pump?
A heat pump is the main heating equipment in 16.13 million US homes, about 13.1% of 123.53 million housing units, per EIA RECS 2020. Natural gas central furnaces heat 53.26 million homes. Shipment share runs far ahead of installed share because equipment lasts fifteen years or more.
Why do shipment share and installed share differ so much?
Shipments describe what is being sold now; installed base describes what is already in homes. With service lives of fifteen years or more, a shift in what ships takes well over a decade to move the stock. Heat pumps near half of shipments against roughly 13% of homes is the expected gap, not a contradiction.
Sources
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release, published August 14, 2026.
- US Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, tables HC6.1 and HC7.1.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry, series PCU333415333415.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
Leave a Reply