Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
Heat pumps were the heating system in 48% of new US single-family homes in 2025, against 49% for furnaces: statistically tied for the first time in 53 years of Census records.
Electricity now heats 56% of new homes, its third straight year in the lead. 98% of new homes have air conditioning. And new homes are shrinking, down 13% from their 2015 peak.
The Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction records the heating system, heating fuel, air conditioning and size of every sampled new single-family home completed in the United States, with consistent series running back to the early 1970s. New construction is where heating decisions change first, because the system is chosen once, at build time, by a builder optimising cost and code compliance.
Heat pumps and furnaces, 1978 to 2025
The heat pump share was 23% in 2000 and 41% in 2015. It reached 48% in 2025. The furnace share moved the opposite way, from 71% in 2000 to 49%.
The 2025 gap of one point is the smallest in the series. It is also inside the margin of error: Census publishes a standard error of about 4 percentage points on each share, so the two are statistically tied rather than one ahead. What is not in doubt is the direction. The heat pump share has more than doubled since 2000.
The fuel crossover
Heating fuel shows the shift more decisively than the system type. Electricity was the main heating fuel in 56% of new homes in 2025 and gas in 42%, a 14-point lead well outside sampling error. Electricity has led in 2023, 2024 and 2025.
It has led before. Between 1974 and 1985, electric resistance heat dominated new construction after the oil shocks, and then gas took back the lead for 37 years. The difference this time is the equipment: the electric heat in new homes is increasingly a heat pump rather than baseboard or strip heat.
| Year | Heat pump | Furnace | Electric heat | Gas heat | With AC | Median sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1978 | 25% | 57% | 52% | 37% | 58% | 1,655 |
| 1985 | 30% | 54% | 49% | 44% | 70% | 1,605 |
| 1990 | 23% | 65% | 33% | 59% | 76% | 1,905 |
| 1995 | 25% | 66% | 29% | 66% | 80% | 1,920 |
| 2000 | 23% | 71% | 27% | 70% | 85% | 2,057 |
| 2005 | 29% | 67% | 31% | 66% | 89% | 2,227 |
| 2010 | 38% | 56% | 43% | 54% | 88% | 2,169 |
| 2015 | 41% | 56% | 39% | 60% | 93% | 2,467 |
| 2020 | 39% | 59% | 45% | 55% | 95% | 2,261 |
| 2022 | 43% | 55% | 48% | 51% | 97% | 2,299 |
| 2023 | 45% | 53% | 52% | 47% | 98% | 2,233 |
| 2024 | 45% | 52% | 52% | 47% | 98% | 2,146 |
| 2025 | 48% | 49% | 56% | 42% | 98% | 2,142 |
By region
| Region | Heat pump | Furnace | Electric heat | Gas heat | Median sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 14% | 77% | 16% | 81% | 2,459 |
| Midwest | 7% | 88% | 17% | 82% | 1,969 |
| South | 63% | 36% | 73% | 27% | 2,162 |
| West | 42% | 51% | 48% | 48% | 2,090 |
The national figure blends two different markets. In the South, 63% of new homes use a heat pump and 73% are heated by electricity. In the Northeast and Midwest, gas heats more than 80% of new homes. The national trend is driven overwhelmingly by Southern construction, which is also where most new homes are built.
Air conditioning is now universal in new homes
98% of new single-family homes had air conditioning in 2025, against 49% in 1973 and 85% in 2000. A new home without cooling is now a rounding error. Across the existing housing stock the figure is lower; our state analysis puts it at 89%.
And new homes are getting smaller
The median new single-family home grew from 1,525 square feet in 1973 to a peak of 2,467 in 2015, and has fallen since to 2,142 in 2025. Smaller, tighter new homes need less heating and cooling capacity per home, which is part of why heat pumps sized for them can carry the full load. Our analysis of insulation by housing age shows newer homes are also far better sealed.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of new homes have heat pumps?
48% of new single-family homes completed in 2025 used a heat pump as the heating system, according to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. Forced-air furnaces were 49%.
Have heat pumps overtaken furnaces in new homes?
Not quite, and the honest answer is that they are tied. In 2025 heat pumps were 48% and furnaces 49%, but Census publishes a standard error of about 4 percentage points on each share, so the one-point gap is well within sampling error. Heat pumps have never led in the 53-year series.
Is electric heat more common than gas in new homes?
Yes. Electricity was the main heating fuel in 56% of new single-family homes in 2025 and gas in 42%. Electricity has led for three straight years; before that it last led between 1974 and 1985.
How many new homes have air conditioning?
98% of new single-family homes completed in 2025 had air conditioning, up from 49% in 1973.
Are new homes getting bigger?
Not any more. The median new single-family home was 2,142 square feet in 2025, down from a peak of 2,467 in 2015, though still 40% larger than in 1973.
Where are heat pumps most common in new homes?
The South, where 63% of new homes use one. In the Midwest the figure is 7% and in the Northeast 14%, where furnaces still dominate new construction.
Why are new homes different from the housing stock?
New construction is where heating choices change first, because the system is chosen once at build time rather than at replacement. About 14% of all existing heated homes use a heat pump as main heat, against 48% of new homes.
Methodology and limitations
- Source: US Census Bureau, Survey of Construction, Characteristics of New Housing: Type of Heating System, Type of Heating Fuel, Presence of Air-Conditioning, and Median and Average Square Feet, single-family homes completed.
- Survey of Construction estimates come from a sample and carry sampling error. Census publishes a standard error of about 4 percentage points for the heating-system shares in the latest year, which is why the heat pump and furnace shares are described as statistically tied.
- Heat pumps include air-source and ground-source (geothermal) systems, as Census defines them.
- Electric heat includes heat pumps and electric resistance heat. Gas includes natural gas and propane as Census groups them.
- Single-family estimates before 1999 include a Census adjustment of 3.3% for structures built in permit-issuing areas without permit authorisation.
- Figures describe new homes completed in each year, not homes started or sold. Multifamily buildings are excluded.
- The housing-stock comparison (about 14% of heated homes) is from EIA RECS 2020 and measures a different population.
Sources
- US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing, Survey of Construction, annual tables for heating system, heating fuel, air conditioning and square footage.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
Leave a Reply