Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
Gas furnaces heat 53.26 million US homes against 16.13 million for heat pumps, but heat pumps now take about 46% of new central shipments. The installed base says furnace, the new-sales data says heat pump, and both are true at once.
The decision turns on what you pay for fuel against what you pay for electricity where you live. Heating oil, for one comparison point, averaged $4.01 a gallon last season and peaked at $5.57.
What US homes actually run
| Main heating equipment | Homes (million) | Share of stock |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas central furnace | 53.26 | 43.1% |
| Heat pump | 16.13 | 13.1% |
| Electric central furnace | 13.82 | 11.2% |
Gas furnaces heat more than three times as many homes as heat pumps. That is the installed base, from EIA RECS 2020, and it moves slowly because equipment stays in service for a long time.
What is being installed now
Through June 2026, air-source heat pumps were 2,156,549 of 4,716,688 combined central shipments, about 46%. Two years earlier the share was 42%. The category did not grow: air conditioner shipments fell by roughly the same number of units that heat pumps gained.
Our full shipment analysis sets out the near unit-for-unit substitution behind that shift.
How the comparison actually works
| Factor | Gas furnace | Heat pump |
|---|---|---|
| Provides cooling | No, needs a separate air conditioner | Yes, one machine does both |
| Energy source | Natural gas, propane or oil | Electricity |
| Cost driver | Fuel price and burner efficiency | Electricity price and coefficient of performance |
| Cold weather behaviour | Output largely independent of outdoor temperature | Efficiency falls as outdoor temperature drops |
| Federal minimum efficiency | Set by DOE for furnaces | 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 for split systems |
| Regional efficiency rules | Applies to furnaces separately | No regional air conditioner standard applies |
The honest version of the running-cost comparison is that it depends on local fuel and electricity prices, which vary enormously by state and by season. We publish the heating oil series because EIA measures it weekly; we do not publish a national gas-versus-electric running cost, because the answer changes by utility territory.
Homes currently heating with oil or propane face fuel prices that move sharply. Heating oil averaged $4.01 a gallon in the 2025/26 season, up 9.8%, with a peak of $5.57. Homes on cheap natural gas face a much closer comparison. See our heating oil price index.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump better than a gas furnace?
It depends on local energy prices and climate. A heat pump provides heating and cooling in one machine and runs on electricity; a gas furnace provides heat only and needs a separate air conditioner. Gas furnaces still heat 53.26 million US homes against 16.13 million for heat pumps, but heat pumps take about 46% of new central shipments.
Do heat pumps work in cold weather?
They operate in cold weather, but efficiency falls as outdoor temperature drops, which is why performance is rated separately as HSPF2. Federal minimum for split system heat pumps is 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2. Whether that is economical against a furnace depends on your electricity price and local design temperatures.
Are heat pumps replacing furnaces?
Not directly. The shipment shift is heat pumps taking share from air conditioners, not from furnaces: air conditioner shipments fell about 159,222 units between the 2024 and 2026 year-to-date periods while heat pumps rose about 159,379. Gas furnaces remain the largest installed heating category.
Which is cheaper to run?
It depends on local fuel and electricity prices, which vary by utility territory and season, so no honest national answer exists. Homes heating with oil face the most volatile input: heating oil averaged $4.01 a gallon in 2025/26 and peaked at $5.57.
Methodology and limitations
Installed base is EIA RECS 2020, tables HC6.1 and HC7.1. Shipments are the AHRI June 2026 Statistical Release. Heating oil is EIA series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG. Efficiency minimums are 10 CFR 430.32.
- We publish no national running-cost comparison. Fuel and electricity prices vary too much by territory for a single figure to be meaningful.
- RECS 2020 remains the current vintage for equipment data; the 2024 survey’s heating and cooling tables are due in spring 2027 See what the 2024 survey release covers.; the installed base has moved since.
- Shipments measure movement into distribution, not installations.
Sources
- US Energy Information Administration, RECS 2020 tables HC6.1 and HC7.1; weekly heating oil series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG.
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release.
- US Department of Energy, 10 CFR 430.32.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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