Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
HVAC equipment producer prices stand 60.0% above their 2019 average, against 31.0% for consumer prices: 22.1% higher in real terms. The preliminary August 2026 reading is the highest in the series, pending BLS revision.
The step change came in March to July 2025, three months after the refrigerant rule took effect, not on the rule date. This is the canonical index page, updated monthly with every BLS release and revision.
This is The HVAC Brief’s equipment price index: the BLS producer price index for HVAC equipment manufacturing, rebased to 2019, with an inflation-adjusted series and a revision log. It replaces our separate monthly price reports with one page that is updated each month.
The index
In August 2026 the index stood at 324.82, 60.0% above the 2019 average of 203.04. It was 3.9% higher than a year earlier. It is the highest value in the series on first publication, and is treated as provisional until BLS revises it.
| Year | Nominal index | Real-terms index |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2020 | 102.0 | 100.8 |
| 2021 | 110.4 | 104.1 |
| 2022 | 134.4 | 117.4 |
| 2023 | 143.2 | 120.2 |
| 2024 | 146.8 | 119.6 |
| 2025 | 151.5 | 120.2 |
| 2026 | 157.6 | 121.5 |
Against inflation
Consumer prices, measured by CPI-U, rose 31.0% between 2019 and August 2026. HVAC equipment rose 60.0%. Dividing one by the other gives the real-terms index, which shows equipment 22.1% more expensive relative to everything else than it was in 2019. Heating equipment specifically, BLS commodity index WPU106, is up 57.7% over the same span.
When it happened
The increase was not a smooth climb. Across 2024 the index moved +1.4% from January to December. Between March and July 2025 it rose 3.9%, a step change, and it has risen 9.3% since December 2024.
The timing matters for the explanation. The federal refrigerant restriction took effect on January 1, 2025. The step came about three months later, and it tracks the refrigerant producer surcharges announced through 2025 more closely than the rule date itself. Prices rose in 21 of the 31 month-over-month comparisons since January 2024.
The last twelve months
| Month | Index value | 2019 = 100 | Real terms, 2019 = 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 309.82 | 152.6 | 120.1 |
| Oct 2025 | 311.97 | 153.7 | 0.0 |
| Nov 2025 | 312.30 | 153.8 | 121.3 |
| Dec 2025 | 311.87 | 153.6 | 121.2 |
| Jan 2026 | 313.03 | 154.2 | 121.2 |
| Feb 2026 | 316.78 | 156.0 | 122.1 |
| Mar 2026 | 319.54 | 157.4 | 121.8 |
| Apr 2026 | 320.38 | 157.8 | 121.1 |
| May 2026 | 320.64 | 157.9 | 120.5 |
| Jun 2026 | 320.97 | 158.1 | 121.0 |
| Jul 2026 | 323.99 | 159.6 | 122.2 |
| Aug 2026 | 324.82 | 160.0 | 122.1 |
Revision log
BLS marks the most recent months preliminary and revises them in later releases. This index records every revision rather than silently overwriting it.
| Month | First published | Revised to | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 324.903 | 323.984 | -0.919 |
| August 2026 | 324.820 | preliminary | awaiting revision |
The narrative explanation of what drove these prices, and what the refrigerant and tax-credit changes mean for buyers, is in our analysis of HVAC prices in 2026. What a finished installation costs is a different question, covered in our replacement cost explainer.
Frequently asked questions
Are HVAC equipment prices still rising?
Yes. The BLS producer price index for HVAC equipment manufacturing reached 324.82 in August 2026, up 3.9% on a year earlier. That preliminary figure is the highest in the series; BLS revises recent months, so it is not yet a confirmed record. Prices rose in 21 of the 31 month-over-month comparisons since January 2024.
How much have HVAC equipment prices risen since 2019?
60.0% between the 2019 annual average and August 2026. Consumer prices rose 31.0% over the same period, so HVAC equipment rose about twice as fast as general inflation, or 22.1% in real terms.
Did the 2025 refrigerant rule cause the price increase?
The timing argues against it being the main cause. Prices moved +1.4% across all of 2024, then rose 3.9% between March and July 2025, about three months after the January 1, 2025 rule date. Most of the increase since 2019 came before A2L refrigerants entered the market.
What does this index measure?
It measures what US manufacturers receive for HVAC equipment at the factory gate: BLS series PCU333415333415, covering air conditioning, warm air heating, and commercial and industrial refrigeration equipment. It does not include distributor margin, contractor labor or installation.
Why do the numbers change after they are published?
BLS publishes recent months as preliminary and revises them. July 2026 was first published at 324.903 and revised to 323.984. This index re-pulls the series each month and does not call a month a record until it has been revised.
What is the real-terms index?
It is the equipment price index divided by the Consumer Price Index, both set to 100 for 2019. It shows how much HVAC equipment has risen relative to everything else people buy, which is a better guide to affordability than the nominal figure.
Will HVAC equipment prices come down?
Nothing in the published series points that way. The most recent reading is the series high, and the index has not posted a sustained decline since 2019. This page reports the series and does not forecast it.
How often is this updated?
Monthly, when BLS releases the Producer Price Index, usually in the middle of the month for the month before. The September 2026 figure is due in mid-October.
Methodology and limitations
- Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, series PCU333415333415 (HVAC equipment manufacturing, NAICS 333415) and WPU106 (heating equipment); Consumer Price Index CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted. Retrieved from the BLS public API (v1) and FRED.
- Rebasing: each series is divided by its own 2019 annual average and multiplied by 100.
- Real-terms index: the rebased producer price index divided by the rebased CPI-U, times 100.
- The index measures factory-gate prices received by manufacturers. It excludes distributor margins, contractor labor, ductwork, permits and installation, and is not an installed-price index.
- Recent months are preliminary. August 2026 is preliminary at the time of writing. A month is not described as a record until revised.
- The link between the 2025 step change and refrigerant surcharges is an inference from timing. The index does not decompose price changes by cause.
- This page consolidates the July and August 2026 monthly price reports. The August report’s address redirects here.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI series PCU333415333415, HVAC equipment manufacturing.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI commodity series WPU106, heating equipment.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED, for the full monthly series.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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