Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
Three separate federal actions in six weeks all point the same direction on refrigerant supply, and none of them is a refrigerant rule. Two are trade measures on Chinese imports and one is a scheduled production cap already in the CFR.
Individually each is routine. Together they describe a market where imported supply stays constrained by duties while domestic production is capped and stepping down, at the moment demand shifts toward a molecule that sits at the centre of both.
The three actions
| Date | Action | Citation |
|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2026 | Final results, antidumping review on HFC blends from China | 91 FR 48079 |
| August 11, 2026 | Continuation of antidumping order on R-32 from China | 91 FR 51658 |
| Standing, in force | HFC production capped at 60% of baseline, dropping to 30% in 2029 | 40 CFR 84.7 |
Why R-32 is the pinch point
R-32 is roughly two thirds of R-454B by weight and half of R-410A. The A2L transition moved new residential equipment onto a blend that is mostly R-32, while the installed base still runs on a blend that is half R-32. Demand for the same molecule sits on both sides of the transition.
The phasedown compounds it. Because the cap is measured in exchange value equivalent, weighted by global warming potential, R-410A at a GWP of 2,088 consumes far more allowance per pound than lower-GWP alternatives. Servicing the existing base is expensive in allowance terms precisely when allowances are being reduced.
We are not forecasting refrigerant prices. None of these documents contains a price projection and we do not publish one. What the documents establish is the direction of the constraints: import measures maintained, domestic production capped, next reduction dated January 1, 2029.
What a contractor can actually do with this
- Treat refrigerant as a scheduled cost input rather than an incidental one, particularly on service agreements priced a year ahead.
- Put the phasedown in writing when selling R-410A inventory, which remains legally installable. See what the rule says.
- Find leaks rather than recharging. Every avoidable recharge draws on a constrained supply.
- Watch the 2029 step, when allowances halve. It is the dated event in this picture, not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
Is there a refrigerant shortage in 2026?
We do not claim one. What is documented is that antidumping measures on Chinese HFC blends and R-32 were maintained in July and August 2026, while domestic HFC production is capped at 60% of baseline under 40 CFR 84.7 and scheduled to drop to 30% on January 1, 2029. Those are constraints on supply, not an observed shortage.
Why does R-32 matter so much?
It is roughly two thirds of R-454B, the A2L blend now used in most new residential equipment, and half of R-410A, which the installed base runs on. Demand for the same molecule sits on both sides of the refrigerant transition.
Will refrigerant prices go up?
We make no forecast, and none of the underlying documents contains one. Commerce publishes duty determinations and EPA publishes allowance schedules, neither of which projects prices.
Methodology
This piece synthesises three primary documents named in the table above. The R-32 and R-454B composition figures are standard blend compositions. The R-410A global warming potential of 2,088 is the figure EPA used in the Technology Transitions rulemaking. No price data is used because no federal series tracks residential refrigerant pricing.
Sources
- US Department of Commerce, 91 FR 48079, July 30, 2026, docket A-570-028; and 91 FR 51658, August 11, 2026, docket A-570-121.
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 40 CFR 84.7, phasedown schedule.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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