Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
US production and consumption of HFC refrigerants is capped on a declining schedule, and the next step is the largest: allowances halve from 60% of baseline to 30% on January 1, 2029. That is written into 40 CFR 84.7, not proposed.
For anyone servicing R-410A equipment, that date matters more than any refrigerant rule already in force. The equipment stays legal to run; the refrigerant that keeps it running gets scarcer on a published timetable.
The phasedown comes from the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act and is administered through an allowance system. Producers and importers may not exceed a set percentage of a fixed baseline, and that percentage steps down at defined dates.
The schedule
| Period | Production (% of baseline) | Consumption (% of baseline) | Production cap (MTEVe) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-2023 | 90% | 90% | 344,299,157 |
| 2024-2028 | 60% | 60% | 229,521,263 |
| 2029-2033 | 30% | 30% | 114,760,632 |
| 2034-2035 | 20% | 20% | 76,507,088 |
| 2036 and after | 15% | 15% | 57,380,316 |
The production baseline is 382,535,439 metric tons of exchange value equivalent and the consumption baseline is 302,538,316. MTEVe weights each substance by its global warming potential, so a high-GWP refrigerant consumes more of the cap per physical pound than a low-GWP one.
Why 2029 is the step that matters
The move from 90% to 60% in 2024 was a 33% reduction. The move from 60% to 30% in 2029 is a 50% reduction, and it lands on a market still servicing a very large installed base of R-410A equipment.
Because the cap is measured in exchange value equivalent rather than tonnes, high-GWP refrigerants are squeezed hardest. R-410A has a global warming potential of 2,088, so every pound produced consumes far more of the allowance pool than a pound of a low-GWP alternative.
Nothing prohibits operating or servicing R-410A equipment, and pre-2025 inventory remains legally installable. What the schedule does is make the service refrigerant progressively scarcer against a fixed installed base. If you are advising a homeowner on a repair-or-replace decision for an R-410A system, the 2029 step belongs in the conversation. See what the installation rule actually says.
Frequently asked questions
When does the next HFC phasedown step happen?
January 1, 2029, when production and consumption allowances drop from 60% of baseline to 30%, per the schedule in 40 CFR 84.7. It is the largest single step in the schedule, halving available allowances, and it follows the 2024 reduction from 90% to 60%.
Will R-410A become unavailable?
The regulation caps production and consumption rather than banning the substance, so it becomes scarcer rather than unavailable on a date. Because the cap is measured in exchange value equivalent, high-GWP refrigerants like R-410A at a GWP of 2,088 consume disproportionately more of the allowance pool.
What is MTEVe?
Metric tons of exchange value equivalent. It weights each regulated substance by its global warming potential, so the cap constrains climate impact rather than physical tonnage. A pound of a high-GWP refrigerant uses more of the allowance than a pound of a low-GWP one.
Is it illegal to service R-410A equipment?
No. The phasedown restricts production and import of the substance, not the servicing or operation of equipment that contains it. Existing systems remain legal to run and service, and reclaimed refrigerant is unaffected by production caps.
Methodology and limitations
All figures are quoted from 40 CFR 84.7, phasedown schedule, paragraphs (a) and (b), retrieved from the electronic CFR. The R-410A global warming potential of 2,088 is the figure EPA used in the Technology Transitions rulemaking.
- The schedule constrains production and consumption allowances, not equipment operation or servicing.
- We make no price forecast. The relationship between allowance reduction and market price is not something the regulation states.
- Reclaimed refrigerant is treated differently from newly produced material under the rules.
Sources
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 40 CFR 84.7, phasedown schedule, via eCFR.
- American Innovation and Manufacturing Act of 2020, as implemented at 40 CFR part 84.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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