Last reviewed: October 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
This report ranks every US state and the District of Columbia by the number of HVAC technicians per 100,000 residents. It divides Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) May 2025 employment for SOC 49-9021, heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers, by Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population. It is a density study. For pay, see our companion HVAC technician salary by state report; for projected growth to 2034, see HVAC job outlook by state.
The United States has 120 HVAC technicians on payrolls for every 100,000 residents, or one for every 834 people. Idaho has 224, nearly four times the 58 in District of Columbia, and the gap between states has little to do with how hot or cold they are.
Executive summary
OEWS counted 409,670 HVAC technician wage-and-salary jobs nationally in May 2025. Against a resident population of 341.8 million, that is 119.9 technicians per 100,000 people, up from 116.1 a year earlier on the same population base. The count excludes self-employed technicians and owner-operators.
Idaho leads with 224 technicians per 100,000 residents, followed by New Hampshire (181), South Dakota (172), Florida (167) and Virginia (165). District of Columbia (58) has the lowest density, and among states, Minnesota (72), Illinois (77) and Alaska (83) are lowest.
Climate barely predicts density. Across the 48 states with NOAA population-weighted normals, the correlation between technicians per capita and cooling degree days is 0.09, and with heating degree days 0.04. Florida is dense, as expected, but so are New Hampshire, Maine and South Dakota, and hot Mississippi is near the bottom. Growth does better: density correlates at 0.48 with ten-year growth in HVAC and plumbing contractor employment.
The South holds the largest share of technicians and the highest regional density (132 per 100,000), and the West the lowest (108), pulled down by California (89). Density and pay move in opposite directions (correlation -0.38): the states with the fewest technicians per resident tend to pay the most.
Key findings
- US density: 119.9 HVAC technicians per 100,000 residents, one per 834 people (HVAC Brief calculation, OEWS May 2025 and Census V2025).
- Highest: Idaho, 224 per 100,000, with a location quotient of 2.02, meaning HVAC technicians are twice as large a share of its jobs as nationally.
- Lowest state: Minnesota, 72 per 100,000, one technician for every 1,388 residents. District of Columbia: 58.
- Largest workforce: Florida, 39,160 technicians, 167 per 100,000.
- California has the second-largest workforce (35,130) but one of the lowest densities (89).
- Correlation of density with cooling degree days: 0.09; with heating degree days: 0.04. Climate does not explain where technicians are.
- Correlation of density with ten-year industry employment growth: 0.48; with projected occupational growth to 2034: 0.34.
- Regional density: South 132, Northeast 120, Midwest 109, West 108 per 100,000.
- Density rose most in South Dakota (+51 per 100,000 in a year) and Idaho (+48).
- Most HVAC and plumbing contractor firms per capita: Montana, 71 establishments per 100,000 residents (QCEW 2024).
- Density and median pay correlate at -0.38: scarce technicians earn more.
How many HVAC technicians are there in the US?
Three federal sources count HVAC workers, and they do not agree, because they count different things. OEWS, used for the rankings here, surveys employers and counted 409,670 wage-and-salary jobs in the occupation in May 2025. The Current Population Survey, a household survey, counted about 561,000 employed people in the occupation in 2025 annual averages, including the self-employed. The Employment Projections program uses a base of 425,200 jobs for 2024, combining both. Separately, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages counts everyone employed by plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors (NAICS 238220), including plumbers, office staff and sales, at about 1.32 million in March 2026. For per-capita comparisons across states, OEWS is the only source with consistent state detail for the occupation itself.
| Source | What it counts | Count | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLS OEWS | Wage and salary jobs, SOC 49-9021 | 409,670 | May 2025 |
| BLS Current Population Survey | Employed people in the occupation, incl. self-employed | 561,000 | 2025 |
| BLS Employment Projections | Jobs in the occupation, incl. self-employed | 425,200 | 2024 |
| BLS QCEW | All employees of NAICS 238220 contractors (incl. plumbing) | 1,318,978 | March 2026 |
HVAC technicians per capita by state, ranked
The location quotient compares the occupation’s share of a state’s jobs with its national share; jobs per 1,000 is the occupation’s share of all employment. Both are BLS published values. The relative standard error (RSE) indicates sampling precision of the employment estimate.
| Rank | State | Technicians | Per 100,000 | Residents per tech | Location quotient | Per 1,000 jobs | Employment RSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Idaho | 4,550 | 224.2 | 446 | 2.02 | 5.31 | 9.1% |
| 2 | New Hampshire | 2,560 | 180.9 | 553 | 1.42 | 3.75 | 9.8% |
| 3 | South Dakota | 1,610 | 172.2 | 581 | 1.34 | 3.52 | 11.3% |
| 4 | Florida | 39,160 | 166.9 | 599 | 1.50 | 3.94 | 5.0% |
| 5 | Virginia | 14,690 | 165.4 | 605 | 1.36 | 3.57 | 6.6% |
| 6 | Delaware | 1,730 | 163.2 | 613 | 1.35 | 3.57 | 13.5% |
| 7 | Arkansas | 4,960 | 159.2 | 628 | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.4% |
| 8 | Alabama | 8,260 | 159.1 | 629 | 1.48 | 3.91 | 6.5% |
| 9 | Maine | 2,250 | 159.0 | 629 | 1.33 | 3.51 | 11.8% |
| 10 | Utah | 5,580 | 157.7 | 634 | 1.22 | 3.21 | 10.0% |
| 11 | Vermont | 970 | 150.5 | 665 | 1.22 | 3.20 | 6.1% |
| 12 | Nebraska | 3,020 | 149.7 | 668 | 1.12 | 2.95 | 11.6% |
| 13 | Colorado | 8,940 | 148.7 | 673 | 1.18 | 3.11 | 6.6% |
| 14 | Arizona | 10,860 | 142.4 | 702 | 1.27 | 3.35 | 11.5% |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 5,650 | 137.0 | 730 | 1.25 | 3.31 | 8.1% |
| 16 | Maryland | 8,560 | 136.6 | 732 | 1.18 | 3.10 | 10.4% |
| 17 | North Carolina | 15,230 | 136.0 | 735 | 1.17 | 3.08 | 5.9% |
| 18 | Tennessee | 9,740 | 133.1 | 751 | 1.13 | 2.97 | 6.4% |
| 19 | Rhode Island | 1,450 | 130.1 | 769 | 1.10 | 2.89 | 17.8% |
| 20 | Nevada | 4,170 | 127.0 | 787 | 1.02 | 2.69 | 11.2% |
| 21 | Kansas | 3,770 | 126.6 | 790 | 0.99 | 2.62 | 9.2% |
| 22 | Michigan | 12,590 | 124.3 | 804 | 1.09 | 2.86 | 6.4% |
| 23 | South Carolina | 6,920 | 124.2 | 805 | 1.14 | 3.00 | 6.3% |
| 24 | Indiana | 8,530 | 122.3 | 818 | 1.01 | 2.67 | 7.1% |
| 25 | New York | 24,430 | 122.1 | 819 | 0.96 | 2.52 | 6.0% |
| 26 | Pennsylvania | 15,880 | 121.6 | 822 | 0.99 | 2.62 | 6.1% |
| 27 | North Dakota | 970 | 121.3 | 824 | 0.85 | 2.25 | 13.7% |
| 28 | Ohio | 14,150 | 118.9 | 841 | 0.97 | 2.55 | 6.3% |
| 29 | Iowa | 3,840 | 118.6 | 843 | 0.93 | 2.46 | 8.7% |
| 30 | Wyoming | 690 | 117.2 | 853 | 0.93 | 2.46 | 12.1% |
| 31 | Louisiana | 5,380 | 116.5 | 858 | 1.05 | 2.78 | 8.2% |
| 32 | Missouri | 7,220 | 115.1 | 868 | 0.93 | 2.46 | 6.1% |
| 33 | Massachusetts | 8,200 | 114.6 | 872 | 0.86 | 2.25 | 11.9% |
| 34 | Wisconsin | 6,630 | 111.0 | 901 | 0.86 | 2.25 | 6.2% |
| 35 | Kentucky | 5,100 | 110.7 | 903 | 0.97 | 2.55 | 7.4% |
| 36 | Texas | 34,730 | 109.5 | 913 | 0.94 | 2.47 | 5.2% |
| 37 | Georgia | 12,290 | 108.7 | 920 | 0.95 | 2.51 | 7.3% |
| 38 | New Jersey | 10,330 | 108.2 | 924 | 0.92 | 2.41 | 10.2% |
| 39 | Montana | 1,230 | 107.5 | 931 | 0.91 | 2.41 | 10.7% |
| 40 | Connecticut | 3,800 | 103.0 | 971 | 0.85 | 2.24 | 9.8% |
| 41 | West Virginia | 1,690 | 95.7 | 1,045 | 0.91 | 2.40 | 7.9% |
| 42 | Oregon | 3,980 | 93.1 | 1,074 | 0.77 | 2.03 | 9.3% |
| 43 | Washington | 7,370 | 92.1 | 1,086 | 0.79 | 2.07 | 8.7% |
| 44 | New Mexico | 1,950 | 91.7 | 1,090 | 0.85 | 2.23 | 10.7% |
| 45 | Mississippi | 2,700 | 91.4 | 1,094 | 0.88 | 2.33 | 8.4% |
| 46 | Hawaii | 1,300 | 90.7 | 1,102 | 0.79 | 2.07 | 20.1% |
| 47 | California | 35,130 | 89.3 | 1,120 | 0.73 | 1.93 | 6.9% |
| 48 | Alaska | 610 | 82.7 | 1,209 | 0.72 | 1.89 | 13.6% |
| 49 | Illinois | 9,740 | 76.6 | 1,306 | 0.61 | 1.60 | 13.5% |
| 50 | Minnesota | 4,200 | 72.0 | 1,388 | 0.54 | 1.42 | 11.4% |
| 51 | District of Columbia | 400 | 57.7 | 1,734 | 0.21 | 0.57 | 18.8% |
Source: BLS OEWS May 2025; Census Bureau Vintage 2025. HVAC Brief calculation.
States with the most HVAC technicians per capita
Idaho is an outlier. Its 4,550 technicians work out to 224 per 100,000 residents, and OEWS employment there rose from 3,570 in May 2024 to 4,550 in May 2025. Idaho has been among the fastest-growing states in the country for a decade, and HVAC and plumbing contractor employment there is up 111 percent since 2014 (QCEW). Projections Central expects Idaho’s HVAC occupation to grow 28 percent by 2034, the second-fastest rate in the country.
The next tier is mixed. New Hampshire, South Dakota and Maine are cold, small states. New Hampshire and Maine also have among the highest shares of homes heated with fuel oil in the country (see how American homes are heated), equipment that is normally serviced every year. Florida and Virginia are large Southern states with near-universal central air conditioning. Delaware, Arkansas and Alabama round out the top ten. There is no single pattern, which is the point of the climate analysis below.
States with the fewest HVAC technicians per capita
District of Columbia is lowest. As a dense city of large apartment and office buildings, much of its mechanical work is likely done by building and stationary engineers, a separate occupation (SOC 51-8021), and by technicians whose employers are based in Maryland or Virginia. Among states, Minnesota (72) and Illinois (77) are lowest. Both are cold, and both pay technicians near the top of the national range ($76,350 and $77,410). California (89) and Hawaii follow. California’s mild coastal climate means many homes have no central air conditioning, though its inland valleys are among the hottest places in the country.
Regional density
| Region | Technicians | Population | Per 100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| South | 177,190 | 133,833,983 | 132.4 |
| Northeast | 69,870 | 58,042,054 | 120.4 |
| Midwest | 76,270 | 69,762,666 | 109.3 |
| West | 86,360 | 80,146,154 | 107.8 |
The South accounts for 43 percent of HVAC technicians and 39 percent of the population. The West’s low figure is driven by California, which alone holds 49 percent of the region’s residents.
Contractor firms per capita
A second measure of density counts businesses rather than workers. QCEW counted establishments in NAICS 238220, plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors, in every state in 2024. This includes plumbing-only shops, which cannot be separated, so it measures the combined trade.
| State | Establishments | Per 100,000 residents | HVAC techs per 100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | 808 | 71 | 107 |
| Wyoming | 369 | 63 | 117 |
| Maine | 860 | 61 | 159 |
| New Hampshire | 828 | 59 | 181 |
| Idaho | 1,101 | 54 | 224 |
| North Dakota | 404 | 51 | 121 |
| Vermont | 320 | 50 | 150 |
| South Dakota | 456 | 49 | 172 |
| Nevada | 992 | 30 | 127 |
| Ohio | 3,486 | 29 | 119 |
| Washington | 2,244 | 28 | 92 |
| Michigan | 2,720 | 27 | 124 |
| District of Columbia | 90 | 13 | 58 |
Firm density and technician density are related but not the same (correlation 0.54). States with many small shops per resident, typical of rural New England and the Mountain West, can have average technician density, while large Sun Belt markets have fewer, bigger firms. Our HVAC business by the numbers report covers firm size in detail.
Original synthesis (HVAC Brief calculations)
1. Climate does not explain where HVAC technicians work
If HVAC labor followed climate, the hottest and coldest states would have the most technicians per resident. They do not. Using NOAA Climate Prediction Center population-weighted degree-day normals for the 48 contiguous states, the correlation between technician density and cooling degree days is 0.09, and with heating degree days 0.04. A simple regression of density on cooling degree days predicts only 3.6 more technicians per 100,000 residents for every additional 1,000 cooling degree days, a small effect against a state range of more than 100.
| State | Per 100,000 | Cooling degree days (normal) | Predicted from climate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | 224 | 460 | 125 | +99 |
| New Hampshire | 181 | 301 | 125 | +56 |
| South Dakota | 172 | 673 | 126 | +46 |
| Virginia | 165 | 1,107 | 128 | +38 |
| Delaware | 163 | 1,189 | 128 | +35 |
| Minnesota | 72 | 431 | 125 | -53 |
| Illinois | 77 | 882 | 127 | -50 |
| Mississippi | 91 | 2,095 | 131 | -40 |
| California | 89 | 850 | 127 | -37 |
| New Mexico | 92 | 939 | 127 | -35 |
Mississippi, with 2,095 cooling degree days, has 91 technicians per 100,000. New Hampshire, with 301, has 181. What does correlate is growth: states where contractor employment grew fastest over the past decade have more technicians per resident (r = 0.48). Household growth and new construction appear to matter more than weather: climate decides which equipment gets installed more than how many people are needed to install and service it.
2. The density-pay trade-off
Technician density and median pay correlate at -0.38. The five lowest-density states (excluding DC) have a median state wage of $76,350; the five highest-density states, $59,730. Part of this is price levels, since low-density states such as California and Illinois are expensive. But Minnesota and Illinois have near-average prices, the lowest densities of any state and top-five pay. For contractors, high-density states mean more competition for customers; for technicians, low-density states mean more bargaining power.
3. Residents per technician as a service-capacity measure
Residents per technician translates density into a workload. Nationally there is one HVAC technician on payroll for every 834 residents, or roughly one for every 334 households at the Census average of about 2.5 people per household. In Minnesota the ratio is one for every 1,388 residents; in Idaho, one for every 446. These ratios understate capacity in states with many self-employed technicians, who OEWS does not count, and include technicians working on commercial and industrial systems. They are a relative measure, not a count of technicians available to homeowners.
4. Density is rising nationally
On a constant 2025 population base, national density rose from 116.1 to 119.9 technicians per 100,000 residents between the May 2024 and May 2025 OEWS releases. Density rose most in South Dakota (+51), Idaho (+48) and Maryland (+35), and fell most in Kentucky (-25) and Alaska (-24). Single-year state changes in OEWS partly reflect survey sample rotation and should be read with the RSE column in mind.
Charts worth building from this data
- Choropleth map of HVAC technicians per 100,000 residents by state.
- Scatter plot of density against cooling degree days, with Florida, Idaho, Mississippi and New Hampshire labelled.
- Scatter plot of density against median pay.
- Bar chart of regional density.
- Cartogram of residents per technician.
Most quotable statistics
- There are 120 HVAC technicians on payroll for every 100,000 Americans, one for every 834 people (HVAC Brief analysis of BLS and Census data).
- Idaho has the most HVAC technicians per capita in the US, 224 per 100,000 residents.
- Minnesota has the fewest HVAC technicians per capita of any state, 72 per 100,000.
- Climate barely predicts where HVAC technicians work: the correlation with cooling degree days is 0.09.
- California has the second-largest HVAC workforce but one of the lowest densities, 89 technicians per 100,000 residents.
- States with fewer HVAC technicians per resident pay more (correlation -0.38).
Data limitations
- OEWS excludes the self-employed. States with many owner-operators will look less dense than they are.
- OEWS counts jobs by the location of the employer establishment, not where technicians live or work; technicians crossing state lines (for example, into DC) are counted where their employer is.
- Small-state estimates have higher relative standard errors (shown in the table). Differences of a few technicians per 100,000 are not meaningful.
- Population is the July 1, 2025 Census estimate; OEWS employment is for May 2025 but pools survey panels from three years.
- Degree-day normals are NOAA CPC population-weighted values for the contiguous states. Alaska, Hawaii and DC are excluded from the climate analysis.
- QCEW establishment counts combine plumbing and HVAC contractors and exclude HVAC technicians employed outside contracting (for example, by property managers and manufacturers).
Downloadable dataset: recommended fields
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| state | State or DC |
| techs_oews | OEWS May 2025 employment, SOC 49-9021 |
| emp_rse | Relative standard error of employment |
| population_2025 | Census V2025 resident population |
| techs_per_100k | Technicians per 100,000 residents |
| residents_per_tech | Residents per technician |
| location_quotient | BLS location quotient |
| cdd_normal / hdd_normal | NOAA CPC population-weighted degree-day normals |
| estabs_238220 | QCEW 2024 NAICS 238220 establishments |
| techs_2024 | OEWS May 2024 employment |
Press summary
The US has 120 HVAC technicians for every 100,000 residents, according to an HVAC Brief analysis of federal data, but density ranges from 224 in Idaho to 72 in Minnesota. The analysis found that climate barely predicts where technicians work: correlation with cooling degree days is 0.09. States with fewer technicians per resident tend to pay them more.
Suggested headlines
- Idaho has the most HVAC technicians per capita in the US
- Where HVAC technicians are, and why it is not about the weather
- One HVAC technician for every 834 Americans
- Minnesota and Illinois have the fewest HVAC technicians per resident, and pay them the most
- California’s HVAC workforce is huge, and thin
Source quality ranking
| Source | Tier | Why |
|---|---|---|
| BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 and May 2024 | Tier 1 | Federal establishment survey with published standard errors |
| Census Bureau population estimates, Vintage 2025 | Tier 1 | Official denominators |
| BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 | Tier 1 | Near-census of employer establishments from UI records |
| NOAA Climate Prediction Center degree-day normals | Tier 1 | Federal population-weighted climate data |
| Projections Central long-term projections, 2024 to 2034 | Tier 2 | State labor market agency projections compiled under a federal grant |
Methodology
- Density = OEWS May 2025 state employment for SOC 49-9021 (cross-industry, all ownerships) / Census V2025 July 1 resident population x 100,000. National figure uses the sum of 50 states and DC.
- Residents per technician = population / OEWS employment.
- Location quotient, jobs per 1,000 and RSE are BLS published values.
- Climate: NOAA CPC monthly state summaries; normal = cumulative total minus departure from normal (cooling: January to December 2025 file; heating: July 2024 to June 2025 file).
- Regression: ordinary least squares of density on cooling degree day normals across 48 states; correlations are unweighted Pearson coefficients.
- Establishments: QCEW 2024 annual averages, NAICS 238220, private ownership.
Frequently asked questions
Which state has the most HVAC technicians per capita?
Idaho, with 224 technicians per 100,000 residents in 2025, followed by New Hampshire (181) and South Dakota (172).
Which state has the fewest HVAC technicians per capita?
Minnesota, with 72 per 100,000 residents, then Illinois and Alaska. The District of Columbia is lower still at 58.
How many HVAC technicians are there in the US?
OEWS counted 409,670 wage-and-salary HVAC technician jobs in May 2025. Including the self-employed, the Current Population Survey counted about 561,000 people working in the occupation in 2025.
How many people are there per HVAC technician?
Nationally, about 834 residents per technician on payroll. The ratio ranges from 446 in Idaho to 1,388 in Minnesota.
Which state has the most HVAC technicians in total?
Florida, with 39,160, followed by California (35,130) and Texas (34,730).
Do hot states have more HVAC technicians?
Only weakly. The correlation between technicians per capita and cooling degree days is 0.09. Florida is dense, but so are New Hampshire and Maine, while Mississippi and Louisiana are below average.
Is there a shortage of HVAC technicians?
Density has been rising: from 116.1 to 119.9 per 100,000 residents in a year. Local shortages exist, and low-density states pay more, but national data do not show a falling supply of technicians. See our training gap analysis.
What is a location quotient?
The ratio of an occupation’s share of a state’s employment to its share of national employment. Above 1.0 means the state is more specialised in the occupation than the country.
Does this include self-employed HVAC technicians?
No. OEWS surveys employers and counts wage and salary jobs. Self-employed technicians are excluded.
Does this include plumbers?
The technician counts do not: SOC 49-9021 is HVAC and refrigeration only. The establishment counts (NAICS 238220) do include plumbing contractors.
Cite this report
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 and May 2024, SOC 49-9021.
- US Census Bureau, State Population Totals, Vintage 2025 (NST-EST2025).
- BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, NAICS 238220, 2014 and 2024 annual, 2026 Q1.
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, population-weighted state degree day summaries.
- BLS Current Population Survey, Table 11, 2025 annual averages.
- Projections Central, Long-Term Occupational Projections 2024 to 2034.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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