Original data and independent reporting for the HVAC trade

Category: Homeowners

Cost guides, repair versus replace, and how to read a quote.

  • Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace: What the Installed Data Shows

    Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace: What the Installed Data Shows

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    Gas furnaces heat 53.26 million US homes against 16.13 million for heat pumps, but heat pumps now take about 46% of new central shipments. The installed base says furnace, the new-sales data says heat pump, and both are true at once.

    The decision turns on what you pay for fuel against what you pay for electricity where you live. Heating oil, for one comparison point, averaged $4.01 a gallon last season and peaked at $5.57.

    What US homes actually run

    Main heating equipment Homes (million) Share of stock
    Natural gas central furnace 53.26 43.1%
    Heat pump 16.13 13.1%
    Electric central furnace 13.82 11.2%

    Gas furnaces heat more than three times as many homes as heat pumps. That is the installed base, from EIA RECS 2020, and it moves slowly because equipment stays in service for a long time.

    What is being installed now

    Through June 2026, air-source heat pumps were 2,156,549 of 4,716,688 combined central shipments, about 46%. Two years earlier the share was 42%. The category did not grow: air conditioner shipments fell by roughly the same number of units that heat pumps gained.

    Our full shipment analysis sets out the near unit-for-unit substitution behind that shift.

    How the comparison actually works

    Factor Gas furnace Heat pump
    Provides cooling No, needs a separate air conditioner Yes, one machine does both
    Energy source Natural gas, propane or oil Electricity
    Cost driver Fuel price and burner efficiency Electricity price and coefficient of performance
    Cold weather behaviour Output largely independent of outdoor temperature Efficiency falls as outdoor temperature drops
    Federal minimum efficiency Set by DOE for furnaces 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 for split systems
    Regional efficiency rules Applies to furnaces separately No regional air conditioner standard applies

    The honest version of the running-cost comparison is that it depends on local fuel and electricity prices, which vary enormously by state and by season. We publish the heating oil series because EIA measures it weekly; we do not publish a national gas-versus-electric running cost, because the answer changes by utility territory.

    Where a heat pump changes the maths most

    Homes currently heating with oil or propane face fuel prices that move sharply. Heating oil averaged $4.01 a gallon in the 2025/26 season, up 9.8%, with a peak of $5.57. Homes on cheap natural gas face a much closer comparison. See our heating oil price index.

    Frequently asked questions

    Is a heat pump better than a gas furnace?

    It depends on local energy prices and climate. A heat pump provides heating and cooling in one machine and runs on electricity; a gas furnace provides heat only and needs a separate air conditioner. Gas furnaces still heat 53.26 million US homes against 16.13 million for heat pumps, but heat pumps take about 46% of new central shipments.

    Do heat pumps work in cold weather?

    They operate in cold weather, but efficiency falls as outdoor temperature drops, which is why performance is rated separately as HSPF2. Federal minimum for split system heat pumps is 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2. Whether that is economical against a furnace depends on your electricity price and local design temperatures.

    Are heat pumps replacing furnaces?

    Not directly. The shipment shift is heat pumps taking share from air conditioners, not from furnaces: air conditioner shipments fell about 159,222 units between the 2024 and 2026 year-to-date periods while heat pumps rose about 159,379. Gas furnaces remain the largest installed heating category.

    Which is cheaper to run?

    It depends on local fuel and electricity prices, which vary by utility territory and season, so no honest national answer exists. Homes heating with oil face the most volatile input: heating oil averaged $4.01 a gallon in 2025/26 and peaked at $5.57.

    Methodology and limitations

    Installed base is EIA RECS 2020, tables HC6.1 and HC7.1. Shipments are the AHRI June 2026 Statistical Release. Heating oil is EIA series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG. Efficiency minimums are 10 CFR 430.32.

    • We publish no national running-cost comparison. Fuel and electricity prices vary too much by territory for a single figure to be meaningful.
    • RECS 2020 remains the current vintage for equipment data; the 2024 survey’s heating and cooling tables are due in spring 2027 See what the 2024 survey release covers.; the installed base has moved since.
    • Shipments measure movement into distribution, not installations.

    Sources

    1. US Energy Information Administration, RECS 2020 tables HC6.1 and HC7.1; weekly heating oil series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG.
    2. Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release.
    3. US Department of Energy, 10 CFR 430.32.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • How Long Does an HVAC System Last? Nobody Actually Measures It

    How Long Does an HVAC System Last? Nobody Actually Measures It

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    No federal agency publishes an average HVAC system lifespan, and the “15 to 20 years” figure repeated across the web has no primary source behind it. It circulates because one page copied another, not because anyone measured it.

    What is documented is the consequence of long equipment life. Heat pumps take about 46% of new central shipments but heat only 13.1% of homes, a gap that exists precisely because equipment stays installed for a long time.

    Correction, September 2026: An earlier version of this page said EIA publishes no data on the age of installed equipment. RECS 2020 tables HC6.1 and HC7.1 do report equipment age in bands. We have added those figures below. No federal source publishes an average service life.

    We went looking for a federal lifespan figure and could not find one. The Energy Information Administration’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey records what equipment homes have, not how old it is or when it failed. That absence is worth stating plainly, because it explains why every number you see differs.

    What nobody publishes

    Question Federal source?
    What equipment US homes have Yes, EIA RECS tables HC6.1 and HC7.1
    How many units ship each year Yes, AHRI monthly statistical releases
    Age of installed equipment Yes, in age bands, RECS tables HC6.1 and HC7.1, no average published
    Average service life before replacement No
    Failure rate by equipment age No

    The lifespan claims you find come from manufacturer literature, contractor experience and home-warranty marketing. Those are legitimate inputs, but they are not measurements, and they carry obvious incentives in both directions.

    What the shipment data implies

    There is an indirect way to think about it. Roughly 4.7 million central air conditioners and heat pumps shipped in the first half of 2026, and EIA counts about 123.5 million US housing units with 109.5 million using air conditioning. Annualising shipments against the installed cooling base implies a replacement cycle measured in well over a decade.

    We stop short of turning that into a lifespan number, because shipments include new construction and second systems, and because the installed base figure is from 2020. The arithmetic supports “long”, not a specific year count.

    Why the gap matters more than the number

    Heat pumps are near half of new shipments but around 13% of homes. That gap is the clearest available evidence that residential HVAC equipment stays in service for a long time, and it is measured rather than asserted. See our shipment share analysis.

    What actually determines replacement timing

    1. Refrigerant. An R-410A system still works, but service refrigerant is being phased down and will cost more over the remaining life. See what the R-410A rule says.
    2. Repair cost against replacement cost. A compressor or coil failure changes the calculation sharply; a capacitor does not.
    3. Efficiency floor in your region. Minimum efficiency is federally set and varies regionally, so the replacement is not always like-for-like. See SEER2 requirements.
    4. Whether the original install was correct. Oversized or badly ducted systems fail earlier and perform worse throughout.
    5. Equipment price trend. Producer prices are up 60% since 2019 and August 2026 was the series high, so deferring has carried a cost.

    How old installed equipment actually is

    EIA does publish the age of the equipment in American homes, in bands rather than as an average: 20.0% of homes that heat run main heating equipment 20 years old or more, and 9.6% of air conditioned homes run main cooling equipment that old.

    Age of main equipment Heating, homes (millions) Share Cooling, homes (millions) Share
    Less than 2 years 13.29 11.3% 15.63 14.3%
    2 to 4 years 17.19 14.6% 21.76 19.9%
    5 to 9 years 26.77 22.7% 30.08 27.5%
    10 to 14 years 22.29 18.9% 20.49 18.7%
    15 to 19 years 14.66 12.5% 11.01 10.1%
    20 years or more 23.54 20.0% 10.55 9.6%

    Heating shares are of the 117.74 million homes using heating equipment (RECS 2020 table HC6.1); cooling shares are of the 109.51 million using air conditioning (table HC7.1). Ages are reported by households and cover all equipment types. The distribution shows that a large share of systems run well past 15 years, but it is not a service life: it describes equipment still in use, not when equipment failed or was replaced.

    Frequently asked questions

    How long does an HVAC system last?

    No federal agency publishes an average service life, and the commonly repeated 15 to 20 year range has no primary source. EIA publishes what equipment homes have and how old it is, in age bands, but not service life or failure rates. Replacement timing depends on refrigerant, repair versus replacement economics, install quality and regional efficiency rules rather than on a fixed number of years.

    Where does the “15 to 20 years” figure come from?

    Manufacturer literature, contractor experience and home-warranty marketing, repeated across websites until it reads as established fact. It is not published by EIA, BLS, DOE or any other federal source, and the federal survey of installed equipment age reports age bands, not a service life.

    When should I replace my HVAC system?

    Weigh the repair cost against replacement, whether the system uses R-410A whose service refrigerant is being phased down, and what your region’s minimum efficiency requires. Producer prices for equipment are up 60% since 2019 with August 2026 the highest reading, so deferring has historically cost money.

    Does an older HVAC system cost more to run?

    Federal minimum efficiency has risen over time, so a system meeting a 2015 standard has a lower floor than one meeting the 2023 SEER2 standard. Actual running cost depends on the specific equipment, ductwork, climate and usage, none of which a general lifespan figure captures.

    Methodology and limitations

    EIA RECS 2020 tables HC6.1 and HC7.1 publish the age of main heating and cooling equipment in bands; we found no federal failure-rate or service-life data. Shipment figures are the AHRI June 2026 Statistical Release. Installed base is EIA RECS 2020. Equipment prices are BLS PCU333415333415.

    • We publish no lifespan figure because no primary source supports one.
    • The shipment-to-installed-base comparison is indicative only. Shipments include new construction and additional systems.
    • RECS 2020 remains the current vintage for equipment data; the 2024 survey’s heating and cooling tables are due in spring 2027 See what the 2024 survey release covers. and we do not extrapolate it forward.

    Sources

    1. US Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, tables HC6.1 and HC7.1.
    2. Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release.
    3. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index series PCU333415333415.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • What Size HVAC System Do I Need? Why Square Footage Fails

    What Size HVAC System Do I Need? Why Square Footage Fails

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    System size should come from a room-by-room load calculation, not from square footage. The square-foot rules of thumb that circulate online ignore insulation, window area, orientation, air leakage and local climate, which is why they routinely oversize equipment.

    No federal agency publishes a sizing formula. What the Department of Energy does state is that oversized equipment short cycles, dehumidifies poorly and wears faster, so bigger is not safer.

    This page explains what a real load calculation accounts for, why the shortcuts fail, and what to ask a contractor. It does not give you a square-foot number, for a reason set out below.

    Why square-foot rules fail

    A rule of thumb converts floor area straight into capacity, treating every house of the same size as identical. Two homes of 2,000 square feet can differ by a factor of two in heat gain depending on insulation, window area and orientation, shading, air tightness and climate zone.

    The error is asymmetric. Contractors who guess tend to guess high, because an undersized system generates complaints on the hottest day while an oversized one generates complaints that are harder to attribute. That is how oversizing became the default failure mode.

    What oversizing actually costs

    An oversized air conditioner reaches the thermostat setpoint quickly and shuts off, which is called short cycling. Because dehumidification happens while the coil runs, short cycles leave the house cool and clammy. The equipment also starts and stops more often, and start-up is when compressors wear.

    What a proper load calculation includes

    1. Climate data for your location. Design temperatures, not record extremes.
    2. Building envelope. Wall and ceiling insulation values, construction type, foundation.
    3. Windows. Area, orientation, glazing type and shading. Often the single largest cooling variable.
    4. Air leakage. Measured or estimated infiltration rate.
    5. Internal gains. Occupants, appliances, lighting.
    6. Duct losses. Where the ducts run and whether that space is conditioned.
    7. Room-by-room results. Not just a whole-house total, because distribution matters as much as capacity.

    The industry-standard procedure for residential load calculation is ACCA Manual J, with Manual S for equipment selection and Manual D for duct design. These are private standards published by the Air Conditioning Contractors of America, not federal documents, which is part of why sizing guidance varies so much across the web.

    What to ask your contractor

    Ask this What a good answer sounds like
    Did you perform a load calculation? Yes, a room-by-room Manual J, and here is the output
    What design temperatures did you use? Local design conditions, not record highs or lows
    Did you measure or estimate infiltration? Either is acceptable if stated; silence is not
    Was the ductwork evaluated? Static pressure checked, duct sizing reviewed against the load
    Why this capacity rather than the next size up? A reason tied to the calculation, not to habit

    A contractor who sizes from a load calculation will hand you the output without being pushed. One who sizes from the old unit’s capacity is repeating whatever error was made last time, which is the most common way oversizing propagates across equipment generations.

    Why we do not publish a BTU-per-square-foot table

    Because it would be wrong more often than right, and because publishing one would make this page part of the problem it describes. Any table that turns floor area into tonnage has silently fixed values for insulation, glazing, infiltration and climate. Change any of those and the answer changes.

    What is documented and worth knowing is the equipment side: minimum efficiency is set federally and varies by region, so the sizing conversation and the efficiency conversation interact. Our SEER2 requirements guide sets out the floors that apply where you live.

    Frequently asked questions

    What size HVAC system do I need?

    The answer comes from a room-by-room load calculation for your specific house, normally ACCA Manual J, which accounts for climate, insulation, window area and orientation, air leakage, internal gains and duct losses. Square-foot rules of thumb ignore all of those and typically oversize, so no responsible national figure exists.

    Is a bigger HVAC system better?

    No. An oversized air conditioner short cycles, reaching setpoint and shutting off before it has removed enough humidity, which leaves a house cool and clammy. More frequent starts also accelerate compressor wear. Correct sizing outperforms oversizing on comfort, humidity and equipment life.

    What is a Manual J calculation?

    ACCA Manual J is the industry-standard residential load calculation procedure. It computes heating and cooling loads room by room from climate data, envelope construction, window area and orientation, infiltration, internal gains and duct losses. Manual S covers equipment selection and Manual D duct design. These are private standards, not federal regulations.

    Can I size a system from square footage?

    Not reliably. Two houses of identical floor area can differ roughly twofold in cooling load depending on insulation, glazing, shading, air tightness and climate zone. Square-foot rules embed fixed assumptions about all of those, so they are right only for houses matching the assumptions.

    Methodology and limitations

    This page describes procedure rather than publishing figures, because no federal agency publishes a residential sizing formula and the industry procedure is a private standard we do not reproduce. Efficiency minimums referenced here are from 10 CFR 430.32. Statements about oversizing behaviour describe the physical mechanism, short cycling and reduced dehumidification, rather than quantifying an effect we cannot source.

    • We publish no BTU-per-square-foot figure. Any such figure encodes assumptions that do not hold generally.
    • ACCA Manual J, S and D are private standards. We name them but do not reproduce their contents.
    • Nothing here is engineering advice. Sizing for a specific house requires a calculation for that house.

    Sources

    1. US Department of Energy, 10 CFR 430.32, for federal minimum efficiency standards.
    2. Air Conditioning Contractors of America, Manual J residential load calculation, Manual S equipment selection and Manual D duct design, named as the industry-standard procedures.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • What Is HVAC? The System, the Equipment and the Numbers

    What Is HVAC? The System, the Equipment and the Numbers

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    HVAC stands for heating, ventilation and air conditioning: the systems that heat, cool and move air through a building. In a US home it usually means one connected system, a heat source, a cooling source and the ductwork and fan that distribute air.

    Scale, from federal data: 109.5 million of 123.5 million US homes use air conditioning, gas furnaces heat 53.3 million, and 409,670 people work as HVAC mechanics and installers.

    What the letters mean

    Letter Function Typical residential equipment
    Heating Adds heat to the space Gas or electric furnace, heat pump, boiler
    Ventilation Exchanges and filters air Ductwork, blower, filters, fresh air intake, exhaust fans
    AC (air conditioning) Removes heat and humidity Central air conditioner, heat pump in cooling mode, mini split

    The ventilation letter is the one people skip, and it is the one that most often explains comfort complaints. A correctly sized furnace connected to undersized or leaking ductwork will still heat a house badly.

    What counts as an HVAC system in a house

    Most US homes run a split system: an outdoor unit containing the compressor and condenser coil, an indoor unit containing the evaporator coil and blower, and ductwork connecting them to the rooms. A single thermostat controls it.

    A heat pump is the same architecture, but it can run the refrigerant cycle in both directions, so one machine both heats and cools. That is why heat pumps show up in both the heating and cooling statistics.

    1. Heat source. Gas furnace, electric furnace, heat pump or boiler.
    2. Cooling source. Air conditioner or heat pump.
    3. Air handler and ductwork. The blower and duct runs that distribute conditioned air.
    4. Controls. Thermostat and any zoning equipment.
    5. Filtration. The filter in the return, which is the part homeowners actually maintain.

    How common is each type

    Federal survey data gives the installed picture. Of 123.53 million US housing units, 109.51 million use air conditioning equipment, about 89%. On the heating side, natural gas central furnaces are the main equipment in 53.26 million homes and heat pumps in 16.13 million.

    Main heating equipment Homes (million) Share
    Natural gas central furnace 53.26 43.1%
    Heat pump 16.13 13.1%
    Electric central furnace 13.82 11.2%

    Heat pumps take a far larger share of new shipments than of the installed base, because equipment lasts a long time. Our shipment share analysis puts them near half of new central units against roughly 13% of homes.

    Who works on it

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 409,670 heating, air conditioning and refrigeration mechanics and installers in May 2025, occupation code SOC 49-9021, at a median wage of $29.33 an hour. Counting everyone employed by plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors, including office staff, the figure is about 1,355,400.

    Frequently asked questions

    What does HVAC stand for?

    Heating, ventilation and air conditioning. It refers to the connected systems that heat a building, move and filter air through it, and cool it. In most US homes that means one split system with an outdoor unit, an indoor air handler, ductwork and a thermostat.

    What is the difference between HVAC and air conditioning?

    Air conditioning is one part of HVAC. HVAC covers heating and ventilation as well as cooling. A central air conditioner handles cooling only, while a furnace or heat pump provides heat and the ductwork and blower provide ventilation and distribution.

    Is a heat pump an HVAC system?

    Yes. A heat pump runs the refrigerant cycle in both directions, so a single machine provides both heating and cooling. It appears in both heating and cooling statistics. Heat pumps are the main heating equipment in 16.13 million US homes per EIA RECS 2020.

    How many US homes have HVAC?

    109.51 million of 123.53 million US housing units use air conditioning equipment, about 89%, per EIA RECS 2020 table HC7.1. Nearly all homes have some heating equipment, with natural gas central furnaces the most common at 53.26 million homes.

    Methodology

    Installed equipment figures are EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, tables HC6.1 and HC7.1, final data released March 2023, the current published vintage. Employment and wages are BLS OEWS SOC 49-9021 for May 2025 and BLS Current Employment Statistics series CEU2023822001 for NAICS 238220. RECS runs every five or six years, so 2020 remains current and we do not extrapolate it forward.

    Sources

    1. US Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, tables HC6.1 and HC7.1.
    2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, SOC 49-9021, May 2025; Current Employment Statistics, NAICS 238220.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • How Much Does a New HVAC System Cost in 2026?

    How Much Does a New HVAC System Cost in 2026?

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    No federal agency publishes what an installed HVAC system costs, and any page quoting a precise national average is using a vendor survey, not official data. What is measured is the equipment side: producer prices for HVAC equipment are up 60% since 2019, against 31% for consumer prices.

    That is why quotes moved. It is also why the ranges you see elsewhere disagree so widely: they are surveys of contractors or homeowners, not a measured price series, and they do not separate equipment from labour, ductwork or permits.

    This page does two things. It gives you the part of the cost question that is actually documented, and it shows you how to read a quote so that the number in front of you means something.

    What is actually measured

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a producer price index for HVAC equipment manufacturing, series PCU333415333415. It tracks what manufacturers charge, monthly, and it is the only continuous federal measure that bears directly on your quote. It rose from an index of 203.0 in 2019 to 324.8 in August 2026.

    Cost component Federal measure? What exists
    Equipment at the factory Yes BLS PPI PCU333415333415, monthly, up 60% since 2019
    Installation labour Partly BLS average hourly earnings for the trade, $42.61 as of July 2026. Not a job price.
    Distributor margin No Not published
    Ductwork, permits, disposal No Not published
    Installed system price No Vendor surveys only

    Three of the five components that make up your bill are not measured by anyone official. That is the honest answer to why national averages vary so much between sites.

    Why quotes rose so much

    Equipment producer prices are up 60% since 2019 and 57% since 2020, against 31% for consumer prices generally. Equipment inflated at roughly twice the rate of the wider economy, and it is the largest single input a contractor cannot control.

    Labour rose too, but less. Average hourly earnings across plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors went from $30.39 in 2019 to $42.61, about 40%. Our full price index analysis traces the timing and shows the refrigerant transition was not the main driver.

    Separately, the federal 25C tax credit that took up to $2,000 off a qualifying heat pump expired for anything placed in service after December 31, 2025. That is an out-of-pocket increase on the same job, and it is covered in what the 25C expiry costs.

    How to read the quote in front of you

    1. Ask for equipment and labour on separate lines. Equipment is the line that moved. A contractor who can show you the invoice is usually the one not padding.
    2. Check whether ductwork is included. Reusing failing ductwork is the most common reason one quote comes in far below the others, and it is a scope difference rather than a saving.
    3. Confirm a load calculation was done. Sizing by rule of thumb rather than calculation is how systems end up oversized, which costs money twice.
    4. Ask which refrigerant. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory is often cheaper and still legal to install federally. It also commits you to a refrigerant being phased down. See what the rule actually says.
    5. Ask about the efficiency tier and your region. Minimum efficiency is set federally and varies by region, so the cheapest legal unit in one state cannot be installed in another.
    Why we do not publish a dollar range

    We could copy one from a vendor survey, as most pages do. We do not, because we cannot verify it and because a national average is close to meaningless for a job whose price depends on your ductwork, your region’s efficiency floor, your equipment tier and your local labour market. What we can tell you is which parts of the increase are documented and how large they were.

    Methodology and limitations

    Equipment prices are BLS series PCU333415333415, indexed to its 2019 annual average. Labour is BLS Current Employment Statistics series CEU2023822003 for NAICS 238220. Consumer prices are CUUR0000SA0.

    • Producer prices measure factory-gate charges, not installed prices. The direction is reliable, the pass-through to any one quote is not.
    • PCU333415333415 includes commercial and industrial refrigeration equipment alongside residential HVAC.
    • NAICS 238220 groups plumbing with heating and air conditioning, and average hourly earnings covers all payroll staff, not only installers.
    • We deliberately publish no installed-cost range. No federal series measures one.

    Frequently asked questions

    How much does a new HVAC system cost in 2026?

    No federal agency publishes installed system prices, so any precise national average comes from a vendor survey rather than official data. What is measured is equipment: producer prices for HVAC equipment manufacturing are up 60% since 2019 against 31% for consumer prices, which is the largest documented reason quotes rose.

    Why is HVAC replacement so expensive now?

    Equipment producer prices rose about 60% between 2019 and July 2026, roughly twice general inflation. Contractor wages rose about 40% over the same period. The federal 25C credit worth up to $2,000 on a heat pump also expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025.

    Why do cost estimates vary so much between websites?

    Because installed price is not measured federally. Sites publish contractor or homeowner survey ranges, which differ by sample, region and what they include. Three of the five components of a bill, distributor margin, ductwork and permits, are not tracked by any official series.

    How do I tell whether a quote is fair?

    Ask for equipment and labour as separate lines, confirm whether ductwork is included, check that a load calculation was performed rather than a rule of thumb, and ask which refrigerant and efficiency tier is being quoted. A quote far below others is usually a scope difference rather than a better price.

    Sources

    1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry, series PCU333415333415, via the BLS Public Data API v2.
    2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, series CEU2023822003, and Consumer Price Index CUUR0000SA0.
    3. Internal Revenue Service, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Heating Oil Prices: $5.54 a Gallon and What Drove the 2026 Spike

    Heating Oil Prices: $5.54 a Gallon and What Drove the 2026 Spike

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    US residential heating oil averaged $4.01 a gallon across the 2025/26 heating season, up 9.8% on the season before, and finished at $5.54 on 2026-03-30. The season peaked at $5.57 on 2026-03-23, the highest weekly price since November 2022.

    The move was concentrated, not gradual. In the week of March 9, 2026 the national residential price jumped from $4.27 to $5.09, a 19.3% rise in a single week, then kept climbing for two more weeks before the season closed.

    The Energy Information Administration surveys residential heating oil prices weekly, but only from October through March. That means the number most sites quote in summer is a stale March figure, and the current published reading will not change until the survey restarts. Everything below states which week it describes.

    What heating oil costs right now

    The most recent published price is $5.54 per gallon for the week ending 2026-03-30. That is the final reading of the 2025/26 season. EIA does not survey residential prices between April and September, so this figure stands as the current published price until the new season begins in October.

    Measure, 2025/26 season Price per gallon Week
    Most recent published price $5.54 2026-03-30
    Season peak $5.57 2026-03-23
    Season low $3.53 during the season
    Season average $4.01 26 weekly readings
    Prior season average, 2024/25 $3.65 28 weekly readings

    How this season compares

    At $4.01, the 2025/26 average sits 9.8% above 2024/25 and is the highest season average since 2022/23, when the average was $4.82. The peak of $5.57 is below the $5.90 reached in November 2022 but above every other season in the last decade.

    $2$3$4$5$62017/18 peak $3.222017/18 average $2.963.2217/182018/19 peak $3.372018/19 average $3.243.3718/192019/20 peak $3.122019/20 average $2.923.1219/202020/21 peak $2.902020/21 average $2.472.9020/212021/22 peak $5.132021/22 average $3.745.1321/222022/23 peak $5.902022/23 average $4.825.9022/232023/24 peak $4.392023/24 average $4.044.3923/242024/25 peak $3.942024/25 average $3.653.9424/252025/26 peak $5.572025/26 average $4.015.5725/26Season averageSeason peakDollars per gallon, residentialHeating season runs October to March. EIA surveys residential prices weekly during the season only.
    US residential heating oil price by heating season, season average and season peak. Source: EIA series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG, weekly residential No. 2 heating oil. Season aggregation by The HVAC Brief.
    Heating season Average Peak Change in average
    2020/21 $2.47 $2.90
    2021/22 $3.74 $5.13 +51.2%
    2022/23 $4.82 $5.90 +29.0%
    2023/24 $4.04 $4.39 -16.3%
    2024/25 $3.65 $3.94 -9.5%
    2025/26 $4.01 $5.57 +9.8%

    The March spike

    Most of the season’s increase arrived in three weeks. The price sat at $4.27 in the week of March 2, jumped to $5.09 on March 9, reached $5.17 on March 16 and peaked at $5.57 on March 23. That is a rise of about 30% across the month, into the tail of the heating season.

    Why the timing matters

    A March spike catches households that have already burned most of the season’s fuel and are topping up, and it lands after most budget plans and pre-buy contracts were priced. EIA publishes the price series, not the cause, so we do not attribute the move here. What the data supports is the size and the timing, not an explanation.

    What this means if you heat with oil

    A typical Northeast household using roughly 700 gallons a season would have paid about $2,808 at this season’s average, against $2,556 at last season’s, a difference near $252. Actual consumption varies widely with climate, house size and insulation, so treat that as an illustration of the delta rather than a bill estimate.

    Two decisions follow from a season like this. Pre-buy and budget plans are priced against expectations that a late spike can invalidate in either direction. And the gap between oil and alternatives widens: our analysis of heat pump shipment share shows heat pumps now take 45.7% of new central shipments, and the economics of a switch move with exactly this series.

    If you are weighing equipment rather than fuel, our HVAC price index tracks what the equipment itself costs, which has moved on a very different path from fuel.

    Methodology

    Prices are the EIA weekly residential No. 2 heating oil series, sourcekey W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG, US average, dollars per gallon, retrieved as the published historical spreadsheet from eia.gov. The series holds 795 weekly observations from 1990-10-01 to 2026-03-30.

    EIA surveys residential prices only during the heating season, October through March. We aggregate to seasons rather than calendar years because a calendar average would splice two different winters. A season labelled 2025/26 covers October 2025 through March 2026. Season averages, peaks and the week-over-week changes are ours, computed from the weekly series.

    Limitations

    • This is a national average. Regional prices, particularly in New England and the Mid-Atlantic where most oil heat is concentrated, can differ materially.
    • Residential prices include delivery and dealer margin, which vary by supplier, delivery size and contract type.
    • No price is published between April and September. Any current-sounding summer figure elsewhere is a March reading or an estimate.
    • We do not explain the March move. EIA publishes prices, not causes, and we do not attribute a cause we cannot source.
    • The household illustration uses a round 700 gallon assumption for arithmetic only. It is not a consumption estimate for any particular home.

    Frequently asked questions

    How much does heating oil cost right now?

    The most recent published US residential average is $5.54 a gallon for the week ending 2026-03-30, the final reading of the 2025/26 season. EIA surveys residential heating oil prices only from October through March, so this figure remains the current published price until weekly surveying resumes in October.

    Why are heating oil prices so high?

    The 2025/26 season averaged $4.01 a gallon, 9.8% above the season before, with a sharp move in March 2026 that took the price from $4.27 to a peak of $5.57 in three weeks. EIA publishes the price series but not the causes, so we report the size and timing rather than attributing a reason.

    What was the highest heating oil price?

    Within the last decade, the highest weekly residential price was $5.90 a gallon in the 2022/23 season. The 2025/26 peak of $5.57 on 2026-03-23 is the highest since then and above every other season in that period.

    When does EIA update heating oil prices?

    Weekly, during the heating season only. Surveying runs October through March and pauses from April to September. The series is W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG, published as a historical spreadsheet on eia.gov, and it holds weekly observations back to 1990.

    How much heating oil does a house use in a season?

    Consumption varies widely with climate, house size, insulation and thermostat behaviour, and EIA does not publish a single national per-household figure in this series. For arithmetic only, at this season’s $4.01 average a household burning 700 gallons would spend about $2,808, against $2,556 at last season’s average.

    Sources

    1. US Energy Information Administration, Weekly US No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price, sourcekey W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG, dollars per gallon, 1990-10-01 to 2026-03-30.
    2. Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release, for heat pump shipment share.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell fuel or equipment, take advertising, or accept payment for placement. Corrections welcome.

  • The 25C Heat Pump Tax Credit Expired. What That Costs You in 2026

    The 25C Heat Pump Tax Credit Expired. What That Costs You in 2026

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The short answer

    The Section 25C credit expired for anything placed in service after December 31, 2025. A qualifying heat pump that would have earned up to $2,000 off a 2025 tax bill earns nothing federally in 2026.

    Installation date controls, not purchase date. Equipment bought in late 2025 but installed in January 2026 does not qualify. State and utility rebates are separate and unaffected.

    For homeowners this is a straightforward price increase of up to $2,000 on the same job, arriving in the same year equipment prices set new highs. For contractors it removes a closing tool that had been doing quiet work in a lot of proposals.

    What the credit was

    The Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit under Section 25C covered qualifying energy efficiency improvements, with a maximum annual credit of $2,000 for heat pumps, heat pump water heaters and qualifying biomass equipment. The IRS states the credit applies to qualifying property placed in service on or after January 1, 2023 and before December 31, 2025.

    The date that matters is when the equipment was placed in service. That is the installation, not the invoice and not the order. A system paid for in November 2025 and commissioned in February 2026 falls outside the credit.

    If you installed before the deadline

    A system placed in service on or before December 31, 2025 can still be claimed on the 2025 return. For 2025 specifically the IRS also requires that the item was produced by a qualified manufacturer and that the taxpayer reports the Qualified Manufacturer Identification Number, so keep that paperwork with the invoice.

    What it means for a 2026 quote

    Put the two changes together and the swing is larger than most homeowners realise. Equipment producer prices are up 60% since 2019 against 31% for consumer prices generally, and the federal credit that used to take up to $2,000 off the top is gone. A homeowner comparing a 2026 quote against a memory of their last replacement is comparing across both shifts at once.

    Same job, different year 2025 2026
    Federal 25C credit on a qualifying heat pump Up to $2,000 $0
    What controls eligibility Placed in service by Dec 31, 2025 Not available
    State and utility rebates Unaffected Unaffected

    What still works

    State and utility programmes are separate from the federal credit and did not expire with it. They are also routinely worth more than homeowners assume, and they vary enormously by utility rather than by state, so a neighbouring town can have a materially different offer. Check the specific utility before concluding there is no incentive available.

    For contractors the practical move is to stop treating incentives as a footnote at the end of the proposal. If the federal credit is gone, the rebate research you do on the customer’s behalf becomes a differentiator rather than an afterthought.

    Methodology

    Credit terms and dates are taken from the IRS page for the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit. Price context uses BLS producer price index series PCU333415333415 for HVAC equipment manufacturing and CUUR0000SA0 for consumer prices, each indexed to its 2019 annual average.

    Limitations

    • This is general information, not tax advice. Individual eligibility depends on circumstances a publication cannot see. Confirm with a tax professional.
    • We do not list state or utility programmes because they change frequently and vary by utility. Any list we published would be wrong somewhere within weeks.
    • The $2,000 figure is the maximum annual credit for qualifying heat pumps, not a guaranteed amount.

    Frequently asked questions

    Is there a federal heat pump tax credit in 2026?

    No. The Section 25C credit applies to property placed in service before December 31, 2025.

    I bought the equipment in 2025 but it was installed in 2026. Do I qualify?

    No. Eligibility runs on the date the property was placed in service, which is the installation, not the purchase.

    I installed in 2025 but have not filed yet. Can I still claim it?

    Yes. A system placed in service by the deadline can be claimed on your 2025 return. For 2025 the IRS also requires a Qualified Manufacturer Identification Number to be reported.

    Are rebates gone too?

    No. State and utility rebates are separate from the federal credit and are unaffected by its expiry.

    Sources

    1. Internal Revenue Service, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit, Section 25C.
    2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry, series PCU333415333415, and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, series CUUR0000SA0, retrieved via the BLS Public Data API v2.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. Nothing here is tax advice. Corrections welcome.