Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
Heat pumps were 45.1% of the central air conditioners and heat pumps shipped in the US in July 2026, and combined shipments rose 20.1% on July 2025 to 916,830 units, according to AHRI’s July statistical release, published September 11, 2026.
The year-to-date picture is the one worth keeping. Through July, the industry has shipped 126,433 fewer air conditioners and heat pumps than in the same period of 2024, but 142,854 more heat pumps. The category is converting rather than growing.
July shipments
Every cooling category rose against a weak July 2025, with air conditioners up 22.3% and heat pumps up 17.6%. Both remain below July 2024.
| July shipments | 2026 | 2025 | Change | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air conditioners | 503,151 | 411,530 | +22.3% | 613,216 |
| Air-source heat pumps | 413,679 | 351,913 | +17.6% | 430,204 |
| Combined | 916,830 | 763,443 | +20.1% | 1,043,420 |
| Gas warm air furnaces | 265,810 | 260,224 | +2.1% | n/a |
| Oil warm air furnaces | 2,681 | 1,963 | +36.6% | n/a |
A 20.1% monthly gain looks dramatic in isolation. Against July 2024 the same month is down 12.1%, which is why we publish the two-year column.
The two-year comparison, which is the story
Year to date through July, heat pumps are 142,854 units ahead of 2024 while air conditioners are 269,287 units behind. Net, the combined category is 126,433 units smaller than two years ago.
| Year to date, January to July | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2026 vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air conditioners | 3,063,290 | 2,911,784 | 3,332,577 | -269,287 |
| Air-source heat pumps | 2,570,228 | 2,428,800 | 2,427,374 | +142,854 |
| Combined | 5,633,518 | 5,340,584 | 5,759,951 | -126,433 |
| Heat pump share | 45.6% | 45.5% | 42.1% | +3.5 pts |
Heat pump share has moved 3.5 percentage points in two years, and almost all of that came from air conditioners rather than from a larger market. We tracked the same pattern in the heat pump share data and in June’s release.
Furnaces are still falling
Gas furnace shipments are down 5.1% year to date at 1,818,744 units, although they remain above the 1,718,336 shipped in the same period of 2024.
| Year to date | 2026 | 2025 | Change | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas warm air furnaces | 1,818,744 | 1,915,641 | -5.1% | 1,718,336 |
| Oil warm air furnaces | 17,641 | 15,490 | +13.9% | 14,094 |
Oil furnaces rose 13.9% year to date, but the whole category is 17,641 units, about 103 times smaller than gas. A large percentage move on a small base is not a trend. The 95% AFUE standard arriving in December 2028 is the change that will matter to furnace volumes.
Water heaters
Gas storage water heaters rose 5.2% in July while electric fell 3.9%. Year to date both fuels are down.
| Residential storage water heaters | July 2026 | July 2025 | YTD 2026 | YTD change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 333,499 | 316,999 | 2,487,389 | -2.5% |
| Electric | 385,594 | 401,319 | 2,877,192 | -5.2% |
Electric storage shipments are down 5.5% against 2024 as well, so this is a two-year decline rather than a single soft year. Our water heater replacement guide covers what the federal minimums require.
What these numbers are, and are not
AHRI aggregates data from member companies that take part in its statistics programme. The figures are factory shipments, not installations, not sales to homeowners and not a measure of the installed base.
AHRI states that no data by state or region is available to the public beyond what it publishes, and that it does no market forecasting. Shipments can also run ahead of demand when distributors build inventory, which matters in a year when equipment prices are at a series high.
Frequently asked questions
How many heat pumps were shipped in July 2026?
413,679 air-source heat pumps, up 17.6% from 351,913 in July 2025, per AHRI’s July 2026 statistical release. That is 45.1% of the 916,830 central air conditioners and heat pumps shipped in the month.
Are heat pumps outselling air conditioners?
Not yet. Year to date through July 2026, heat pumps were 2,570,228 units against 3,063,290 air conditioners, a 45.6% share. That share was 42.1% over the same period in 2024, so the gap is closing.
Are HVAC shipments growing in 2026?
Against 2025, yes: combined air conditioner and heat pump shipments are up 5.5% year to date. Against 2024 they are down 126,433 units, or 2.2%, so 2026 is a recovery from a weak 2025 rather than a new high.
What happened to furnace shipments?
Gas warm air furnace shipments are down 5.1% year to date at 1,818,744 units, though still above the 1,718,336 shipped in the same period of 2024. Oil furnaces rose 13.9% from a very small base of 15,490 units.
Methodology and limitations
All figures are from the AHRI July 2026 US heating and cooling equipment shipment release, published September 11, 2026. Percentage changes against 2025 are AHRI’s; two-year comparisons and share calculations are ours, from AHRI’s published tables.
- Shipments are factory data from participating AHRI members, not installations or retail sales.
- AHRI publishes no state or regional breakdown and does no forecasting.
- Units under 65,000 Btu/h are residential in AHRI’s tables; 65,000 and above are commercial.
Sources
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, July 2026 US heating and cooling equipment shipment data, published September 11, 2026.
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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