Original data and independent reporting for the HVAC trade

Author: The HVAC Brief Editorial Team

  • The A2L Transition at 20 Months: Manufacturing Settled, Service Not

    The A2L Transition at 20 Months: Manufacturing Settled, Service Not

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Status report

    Twenty months into the A2L transition, the manufacturing side is settled and the service side is not. New residential equipment moved to R-454B and similar blends on January 1, 2025. The installed base is still overwhelmingly R-410A, and will be for years.

    What changed most recently is the installation rule: EPA removed the cutoff on pre-2025 inventory effective July 27, 2026, so both refrigerants are being installed simultaneously.

    Where each piece stands

    Element Status
    New residential equipment manufacture Must be under 700 GWP since January 1, 2025
    Installing pre-2025 R-410A inventory Permitted federally, no end date, since July 27, 2026
    Servicing existing R-410A systems Legal, using produced or reclaimed refrigerant
    EPA 608 certification Unchanged. No A2L-specific federal certification exists
    Refrigerant supply Capped at 60% of baseline, dropping to 30% in 2029
    Trade measures on imported refrigerant Antidumping orders on HFC blends and R-32 maintained in 2026

    The gap nobody legislated

    EPA Section 608 requirements did not change when the refrigerants did. A technician certified in 2015 holds a valid certification that says nothing about A2L handling, storage or tooling. The regulatory framework treats certification as current while the field material has changed underneath it.

    That is not a compliance failure, it is a training gap, and it sits with employers rather than with the certification scheme. See what 608 actually covers and what A2L changes in practice.

    Both refrigerants, same van

    Because pre-2025 inventory remains installable with no federal end date, a contractor can be installing R-454B on Monday and R-410A on Tuesday. That means A2L-rated tooling and recovery equipment alongside the existing kit, not instead of it, for as long as the inventory lasts.

    Frequently asked questions

    Where does the A2L transition stand in 2026?

    New residential equipment has been under the 700 GWP limit since January 1, 2025, so it ships with R-454B or similar. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory remains installable federally with no end date after an EPA rule effective July 27, 2026. The installed base is still overwhelmingly R-410A.

    Do technicians need new certification for A2L?

    No federal A2L-specific certification exists. EPA Section 608 requirements were unchanged by the transition, so an existing certification remains valid. The gap is training rather than certification, and it sits with employers.

    Can contractors install both R-410A and R-454B equipment?

    Yes. Pre-2025 R-410A inventory remains installable federally with no end date, while new equipment ships with A2L refrigerant. That means carrying A2L-rated tooling and recovery equipment alongside existing kit rather than replacing it.

    Sources

    1. 40 CFR 84.54 and EPA final rule 91 FR 31284, effective July 27, 2026; 40 CFR 84.7 phasedown schedule.
    2. 40 CFR 82.161, technician certification.
    3. US Department of Commerce, 91 FR 48079 and 91 FR 51658, antidumping proceedings.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • The Heating Season Opens With Prices High and Shipments Soft

    The Heating Season Opens With Prices High and Shipments Soft

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Season preview

    The heating season opens with equipment prices at a record, gas furnace shipments down 6.2% year to date, and heating oil having closed the last season at its highest level since 2022.

    None of those is a forecast. They are the published positions going in, and together they describe a season where the cost side is elevated and the volume side is soft.

    Where the indicators stand

    Indicator Latest published Direction
    HVAC equipment producer prices Series high, July 2026 Rising
    Gas warm air furnace shipments, YTD 1,552,934 Down 6.2%
    Heating oil, 2025/26 season average $4.01/gal Up 9.8%
    Heating oil season peak $5.57/gal Highest since 2022/23

    The furnace number is the one to watch

    Gas furnace shipments were down 6.2% year to date through June at 1,552,934 units against 1,655,417, even though June itself was up 15.2%. A strong month inside a declining year usually means deferral rather than lost demand.

    Deferred heating replacement tends to arrive later as emergency work: worse scheduling, less quote comparison, higher stress on the customer relationship. A soft shipment year going into a heating season is not the same as a quiet heating season.

    When the oil data resumes

    EIA surveys residential heating oil prices weekly from October through March only. The last published reading is $5.57 territory from the close of the 2025/26 season, and nothing new publishes until surveying restarts in October. Any current-sounding summer figure quoted elsewhere is a March reading. See our heating oil index.

    Frequently asked questions

    What does the 2026-27 heating season look like going in?

    Equipment producer prices are at a series high, gas furnace shipments are down 6.2% year to date, and heating oil closed the previous season averaging $4.01 a gallon with a peak of $5.57, its highest since 2022/23. These are published positions rather than a forecast.

    Why are furnace shipments down?

    AHRI publishes the counts, not the causes. What the data shows is a 6.2% year-to-date decline at 1,552,934 units through June, against a 15.2% rise in June alone. A strong month inside a declining year is a pattern more consistent with deferral than with lost demand.

    When will new heating oil prices be published?

    October, when EIA resumes weekly residential surveying. The agency surveys only during the October to March heating season, so the last published figure stands from the close of the previous season until then.

    Sources

    1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index series PCU333415333415.
    2. Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, June 2026 Statistical Release.
    3. US Energy Information Administration, weekly heating oil series W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPG.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • The HVAC Compliance Calendar Through 2036

    The HVAC Compliance Calendar Through 2036

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Compliance calendar

    Four dated federal changes are already scheduled for HVAC between 2027 and 2036, and the two that matter most to residential contractors are December 18, 2028 and January 1, 2029.

    The first requires 95% AFUE gas furnaces. The second halves HFC production allowances. They land eleven days apart.

    Date What happens Citation
    January 1, 2027 End of the VRF sell-through for systems whose components were built before January 1, 2026. 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2)
    January 1, 2028 Extended VRF sell-through ends where a building permit issued before October 5, 2023 specified the refrigerant. 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2)
    December 18, 2028 Non-weatherized and mobile home gas furnaces must meet 95% AFUE, up from 80%. 10 CFR 430.32(e)
    January 1, 2029 HFC production and consumption allowances drop from 60% to 30% of baseline. 40 CFR 84.7
    2034 and 2036 Allowances step down again to 20%, then 15% of baseline. 40 CFR 84.7

    Why the two 2028-29 dates interact

    A contractor replacing a gas furnace after December 2028 is installing condensing equipment, which vents through plastic pipe to a sidewall rather than up a chimney. In houses where the furnace shared a chimney with an atmospheric water heater, that leaves the water heater on an oversized flue. See why the venting change is the real problem.

    Two weeks later, refrigerant allowances halve. A business planning capital equipment, training and stock for that period is planning for both at once. See our phasedown schedule.

    What is not on this calendar

    No federal end date exists for installing pre-2025 R-410A residential inventory. EPA removed that cutoff effective July 27, 2026. State rules can differ, and several states run their own HFC programmes that are stricter than the federal position.

    Frequently asked questions

    What HVAC rules are coming in 2028 and 2029?

    Two significant ones eleven days apart. Non-weatherized and mobile home gas furnaces manufactured on or after December 18, 2028 must meet 95% AFUE, up from 80%. On January 1, 2029, HFC production and consumption allowances drop from 60% of baseline to 30% under 40 CFR 84.7.

    When does the VRF sell-through end?

    January 1, 2027 for systems whose components were manufactured or imported before January 1, 2026, extending to January 1, 2028 where a building permit issued before October 5, 2023 specified the restricted refrigerant, under 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2).

    Is there a deadline for installing R-410A equipment?

    Not federally. EPA removed the installation cutoff effective July 27, 2026, so equipment manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025 may continue to be installed with no federal end date. Several states operate stricter programmes.

    Sources

    1. US Environmental Protection Agency, 40 CFR 84.7 and 40 CFR 84.54.
    2. US Department of Energy, 10 CFR 430.32(e), furnaces and boilers.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Every HVAC Rule That Took Effect in 2026, With Dates

    Every HVAC Rule That Took Effect in 2026, With Dates

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Compliance calendar

    Four federal changes affecting HVAC took effect during 2026, and one of them removed a deadline rather than imposing one. Each is dated below with its citation.

    The pattern is worth noting: the year tightened equipment efficiency and refrigerant handling for larger systems while loosening the installation constraint on existing residential inventory.

    Date What changed Citation
    January 1, 2026 Refrigerant leak repair requirements begin for appliances with 15 or more pounds of charge. Residential and light commercial AC and heat pumps are explicitly excluded. 40 CFR 84.106
    January 1, 2026 Variable refrigerant flow systems using refrigerant with GWP of 700 or greater restricted, with sell-through provisions. 40 CFR 84.54(c)(2)
    May 26, 2026 New room air conditioner efficiency minimums apply to units manufactured from this date, rising 19% to 50% by class. 10 CFR 430.32(b)
    July 27, 2026 EPA rule takes effect allowing pre-2025 R-410A residential inventory to continue being installed, removing the previous cutoff. 91 FR 31284

    The one that removed a constraint

    The July 27 rule is the outlier. It allows equipment manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025 to continue being installed, with no federal end date. A large amount of published guidance still describes the deadline it removed. See what the rule actually says.

    The one most often misread

    The leak repair requirements are frequently reported as applying to homes. They do not. The section applies at 15 or more pounds of charge and explicitly excludes residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump equipment. See who is actually covered.

    What did not change

    SEER2 minimums for central equipment, in force since January 1, 2023, were unchanged during 2026. The federal 25C tax credit did not return; it expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. And EPA Section 608 certification requirements were unchanged despite the shift to A2L refrigerants.

    Frequently asked questions

    What HVAC regulations changed in 2026?

    Four federal changes: refrigerant leak repair requirements began January 1 for appliances with 15 or more pounds of charge, VRF restrictions began January 1, new room air conditioner efficiency minimums applied from May 26, and an EPA rule effective July 27 removed the installation cutoff for pre-2025 R-410A residential inventory.

    Did the R-410A installation deadline go away?

    Yes, federally. An EPA final rule effective July 27, 2026 allows residential and light commercial equipment manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025 to continue being installed, with no federal end date set. Some states impose stricter rules.

    Do the 2026 leak rules apply to home air conditioning?

    No. 40 CFR 84.106 applies at 15 or more pounds of charge and explicitly excludes residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump equipment. Venting and recovery rules under 40 CFR part 82 apply regardless.

    Sources

    1. 40 CFR 84.106 and 40 CFR 84.54; EPA final rule 91 FR 31284, effective July 27, 2026.
    2. 10 CFR 430.32(b), room air conditioner standards.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • HVAC Contractor Employment Reaches 1,355,400, Wages Hit $42.61

    HVAC Contractor Employment Reaches 1,355,400, Wages Hit $42.61

    Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The data

    Employment at plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors reached about 1,355,400 in the latest reading, and average hourly earnings at those firms hit $42.61. Both are up substantially on 2019: employment by 18.8% and earnings by 40.2%.

    Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts 409,670 people in the narrower HVAC mechanic and installer occupation, at a median of $29.33 an hour.

    These are two different measures and they get conflated. The contractor employment series counts everyone on the payroll including office and supervisory staff. The occupation series counts people doing the installation and repair work.

    The latest readings

    Measure Latest 2019 Change
    Contractor employment, NAICS 238220 1,355,400 1,140,992 +18.8%
    Average hourly earnings, NAICS 238220 $42.61 $30.39 +40.2%
    HVAC mechanics and installers, SOC 49-9021 409,670 n/a median $29.33/hr

    What the combination says

    Employment and wages rising together is not the signature of a shrinking trade. It is the signature of competition for experienced people inside a growing one. A workforce that added roughly a fifth of its headcount while pay outpaced the wider private economy is expanding, whatever hiring difficulty individual firms report.

    That distinction matters for how a business responds. A genuine shortage argues for recruitment spending. Competition for experienced staff argues for retention and training economics. Our pay analysis compares the trajectory against construction overall and the whole private economy.

    The measure to quote carefully

    If you see a technician headcount and a wage figure quoted together, check they come from the same series. The contractor employment number and the occupation number differ by hundreds of thousands of people because they count different populations, and mixing them produces a wage per worker that describes nobody.

    Frequently asked questions

    How many people work in HVAC?

    About 1,355,400 people are employed by plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors as of July 2026, a figure that includes office and supervisory staff. The narrower occupation of HVAC mechanics and installers, SOC 49-9021, counted 409,670 people in the May 2025 BLS release.

    Are HVAC wages still rising?

    Yes. Average hourly earnings at plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors reached $42.61 as of July 2026, up 40.2% from $30.39 in 2019. The median for the mechanic and installer occupation specifically was $29.33 an hour in May 2025.

    Is there an HVAC labour shortage?

    The national data shows a growing workforce rather than a shrinking one: employment up 18.8% since 2019 with wages up 40.2% over the same period. Individual firms report real hiring difficulty, but that pattern describes competition for experienced people inside a growing trade.

    Sources

    1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NAICS 238220, series CEU2023822001 and CEU2023822003; Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, SOC 49-9021, May 2025, via the BLS Public Data API v2.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Three Federal Actions in Six Weeks All Squeeze Refrigerant Supply

    Three Federal Actions in Six Weeks All Squeeze Refrigerant Supply

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    Analysis

    Three separate federal actions in six weeks all point the same direction on refrigerant supply, and none of them is a refrigerant rule. Two are trade measures on Chinese imports and one is a scheduled production cap already in the CFR.

    Individually each is routine. Together they describe a market where imported supply stays constrained by duties while domestic production is capped and stepping down, at the moment demand shifts toward a molecule that sits at the centre of both.

    The three actions

    Date Action Citation
    July 30, 2026 Final results, antidumping review on HFC blends from China 91 FR 48079
    August 11, 2026 Continuation of antidumping order on R-32 from China 91 FR 51658
    Standing, in force HFC production capped at 60% of baseline, dropping to 30% in 2029 40 CFR 84.7

    Why R-32 is the pinch point

    R-32 is roughly two thirds of R-454B by weight and half of R-410A. The A2L transition moved new residential equipment onto a blend that is mostly R-32, while the installed base still runs on a blend that is half R-32. Demand for the same molecule sits on both sides of the transition.

    The phasedown compounds it. Because the cap is measured in exchange value equivalent, weighted by global warming potential, R-410A at a GWP of 2,088 consumes far more allowance per pound than lower-GWP alternatives. Servicing the existing base is expensive in allowance terms precisely when allowances are being reduced.

    What we are not saying

    We are not forecasting refrigerant prices. None of these documents contains a price projection and we do not publish one. What the documents establish is the direction of the constraints: import measures maintained, domestic production capped, next reduction dated January 1, 2029.

    What a contractor can actually do with this

    1. Treat refrigerant as a scheduled cost input rather than an incidental one, particularly on service agreements priced a year ahead.
    2. Put the phasedown in writing when selling R-410A inventory, which remains legally installable. See what the rule says.
    3. Find leaks rather than recharging. Every avoidable recharge draws on a constrained supply.
    4. Watch the 2029 step, when allowances halve. It is the dated event in this picture, not a forecast.

    Frequently asked questions

    Is there a refrigerant shortage in 2026?

    We do not claim one. What is documented is that antidumping measures on Chinese HFC blends and R-32 were maintained in July and August 2026, while domestic HFC production is capped at 60% of baseline under 40 CFR 84.7 and scheduled to drop to 30% on January 1, 2029. Those are constraints on supply, not an observed shortage.

    Why does R-32 matter so much?

    It is roughly two thirds of R-454B, the A2L blend now used in most new residential equipment, and half of R-410A, which the installed base runs on. Demand for the same molecule sits on both sides of the refrigerant transition.

    Will refrigerant prices go up?

    We make no forecast, and none of the underlying documents contains one. Commerce publishes duty determinations and EPA publishes allowance schedules, neither of which projects prices.

    Methodology

    This piece synthesises three primary documents named in the table above. The R-32 and R-454B composition figures are standard blend compositions. The R-410A global warming potential of 2,088 is the figure EPA used in the Technology Transitions rulemaking. No price data is used because no federal series tracks residential refrigerant pricing.

    Sources

    1. US Department of Commerce, 91 FR 48079, July 30, 2026, docket A-570-028; and 91 FR 51658, August 11, 2026, docket A-570-121.
    2. US Environmental Protection Agency, 40 CFR 84.7, phasedown schedule.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • HVAC Equipment Prices Hit a Record in July

    HVAC Equipment Prices Hit a Record in July

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The news

    Producer prices for HVAC equipment reached their highest level on record in July 2026, at an index of 324.0. That is up 0.94% on June and 4.1% on July 2025, on revised figures.

    Against the 2019 annual average the series is up 60.0%. Consumer prices rose about 31% over the same period, so equipment continues to inflate at roughly twice the general rate.

    Correction, September 2026: BLS revised the July 2026 index to 323.984 from the first published 324.903, which cuts the monthly gain to 0.94% from 1.23%. July remained a series high at the time. August 2026, at 324.82, is now the highest reading. See our August report.

    The series is BLS producer price index PCU333415333415, covering air conditioning, warm air heating and commercial and industrial refrigeration equipment manufacturing. It measures what manufacturers charge, not installed prices.

    The reading in context

    Comparison Index Change
    July 2026 324.0 series high at the time
    June 2026 321.0 +0.94%
    July 2025 311.3 +4.1%
    2019 annual average 203.0 +59.6%

    The revised month-over-month move of 0.94% is the largest since February 2026. Prices have risen in 20 of the 30 month-over-month comparisons since January 2024, so the direction has been persistent rather than a single spike.

    Why this matters for Q4 quoting

    Equipment is the largest input a contractor cannot control, and it set a record in the month heading into the autumn replacement season. Anyone holding quoted prices for extended periods is absorbing the difference. Our price index analysis traces what drove the increase and shows the refrigerant transition is not the main factor.

    Frequently asked questions

    How much did HVAC equipment prices rise in July 2026?

    The BLS producer price index for HVAC equipment manufacturing rose 0.94% from June to a revised 323.98 in July 2026, the highest reading in the series at the time. Year over year the increase was 4.4%, and against the 2019 annual average the series is up 60.0%.

    Is this the highest HVAC equipment prices have been?

    Yes, in this series. July 2026, at a revised 323.98, was the highest monthly reading of BLS PCU333415333415 since 2019 until August 2026 set a new high. Prices have risen in 20 of the 30 month-over-month comparisons since January 2024.

    Does the producer price index tell me what a system costs?

    No. It measures what manufacturers charge at the factory gate. Installed prices add distributor margin, labour, ductwork and permits, none of which this series captures. The direction is reliable but the pass-through to a specific quote is not.

    Sources

    1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry, series PCU333415333415, monthly through July 2026, via the BLS Public Data API v2.
    2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, series CUUR0000SA0.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • DOE Proposes Changing How It Sets Efficiency Standards

    DOE Proposes Changing How It Sets Efficiency Standards

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The news

    The Department of Energy has proposed changes to the methodology it uses to set appliance efficiency standards, in a notice of proposed rulemaking published July 7, 2026 at 91 FR 42034. Comments closed August 21, 2026 after an extension published July 28 at 91 FR 47155.

    This is process rather than a standard, and that is precisely why it matters. The methodology governs how every future HVAC standard is justified, including the ones already scheduled.

    The rulemaking updates DOE’s “Procedures, Interpretations, and Policies for Consideration of New or Revised Energy Conservation Standards and Test Procedures for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial/Industrial Equipment”, commonly called the process rule. DOE published a companion proposal the same day reviewing its analytic methods for setting standards.

    Why a process rule matters to HVAC

    Efficiency standards for HVAC equipment are set through this framework. The SEER2 minimums at 10 CFR 430.32(c), the room air conditioner increase that took effect May 26, 2026, and the 95% AFUE furnace standard scheduled for December 18, 2028 were all produced by it.

    Changing how DOE analyses and justifies standards therefore affects the pipeline of future rules rather than any single existing requirement. Standards already in the CFR remain in force unless separately amended.

    What this does not do

    A process rulemaking does not repeal or delay existing standards. The SEER2 minimums, the new room air conditioner levels and the 2028 furnace standard all sit in the Code of Federal Regulations and are unaffected by a proposal about methodology. Anyone reading this as a rollback of current requirements is reading it wrong.

    Frequently asked questions

    What is DOE’s process rule?

    The methodology DOE uses when considering new or revised energy conservation standards and test procedures, formally titled “Procedures, Interpretations, and Policies for Consideration of New or Revised Energy Conservation Standards and Test Procedures for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial/Industrial Equipment”. DOE proposed updating it on July 7, 2026 at 91 FR 42034.

    Does this change current HVAC efficiency standards?

    No. It is a proposal about methodology for future rulemakings. Existing standards including SEER2 minimums, the room air conditioner levels effective May 26, 2026, and the 95% AFUE furnace standard scheduled for December 18, 2028 remain in the Code of Federal Regulations and are unaffected.

    When did comments close?

    August 21, 2026, following an extension published July 28, 2026 at 91 FR 47155. The original notice of proposed rulemaking was published July 7, 2026 at 91 FR 42034 with a comment period closing August 6.

    Sources

    1. US Department of Energy, “Energy Conservation Program: Procedures, Interpretations, and Policies for Consideration of New or Revised Energy Conservation Standards and Test Procedures,” notice of proposed rulemaking, 91 FR 42034, July 7, 2026; comment period extension 91 FR 47155, July 28, 2026.
    2. US Department of Energy, 10 CFR 430.32, current efficiency standards.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Commerce Publishes Final HFC Blend Duty Results for 2023-2024

    Commerce Publishes Final HFC Blend Duty Results for 2023-2024

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The news

    Commerce has published final results of its antidumping duty administrative review on hydrofluorocarbon blends from China, finding that certain exporters sold at less than normal value during the period August 1, 2023 through July 31, 2024. The notice appeared July 30, 2026 at 91 FR 48079.

    Commerce also determined that Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co., Ltd. had no shipments of subject merchandise to the United States during that period.

    The docket is A-570-028. An administrative review recalculates duty rates for a defined past period rather than deciding whether an order exists, which is a different exercise from the sunset review that continued the separate R-32 order two weeks later.

    What an administrative review does

    1. Covers a defined period. Here, August 1, 2023 to July 31, 2024.
    2. Recalculates rates for reviewed exporters based on sales in that window.
    3. Determines no-shipment status where an exporter did not ship subject merchandise, as Commerce found for Zhejiang Yonghe.
    4. Does not decide whether the order continues. That is the sunset review process.
    Two proceedings, six weeks apart

    HFC blends and R-32 are separate orders with separate dockets, A-570-028 and A-570-121. Both saw Commerce action within six weeks. Taken together they signal that the trade posture on imported refrigerant is being maintained rather than relaxed, at the same time the domestic supply is capped by the HFC phasedown.

    Frequently asked questions

    What did Commerce find on HFC blends from China?

    That certain exporters sold subject merchandise at less than normal value during the review period of August 1, 2023 through July 31, 2024, published July 30, 2026 at 91 FR 48079, docket A-570-028. Commerce separately determined that Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant had no shipments to the United States during that period.

    What is an antidumping administrative review?

    A recalculation of duty rates for a defined past period based on an exporter’s sales during that window. It differs from a sunset review, which decides whether an order should continue at all. An administrative review assumes the order exists and sets rates within it.

    Are HFC blends and R-32 the same proceeding?

    No. They are separate antidumping orders with separate dockets, A-570-028 for HFC blends and A-570-121 for R-32. Both saw Commerce action within six weeks in mid-2026 but through different processes: an administrative review for blends and a continuation for R-32.

    Sources

    1. US Department of Commerce, “Hydrofluorocarbon Blends From the People’s Republic of China: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review and Final Determination of No Shipments; 2023-2024,” 91 FR 48079, published July 30, 2026, docket A-570-028.

    The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.

  • Commerce Continues Antidumping Duties on R-32 From China

    Commerce Continues Antidumping Duties on R-32 From China

    Last reviewed: August 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards

    The news

    Commerce has continued the antidumping duty order on difluoromethane, R-32, from China, in a notice published August 11, 2026 at 91 FR 51658. The order stays in force after Commerce and the International Trade Commission both found that revoking it would likely lead to continued dumping and material injury.

    R-32 is not a niche input. It is roughly two thirds of R-454B by weight, the refrigerant most manufacturers moved to for residential equipment, and half of R-410A.

    The docket is A-570-121. A continuation follows a sunset review, in which Commerce examines whether dumping would resume and the ITC examines whether injury would recur. Both answered yes, so the order remains rather than lapsing.

    Why an R-32 duty reaches residential HVAC

    R-32 is a component, not just a standalone refrigerant. It is the dominant constituent of R-454B, the A2L blend that replaced R-410A in most new residential equipment after the 700 GWP threshold took effect on January 1, 2025. It is also half of R-410A itself.

    That means a trade measure on R-32 touches both sides of the transition at once: the refrigerant going into new systems and the refrigerant keeping the installed base running.

    What we are not claiming

    Commerce publishes duty determinations, not price forecasts. A continued order maintains an existing constraint rather than adding a new one, and we make no prediction about what it does to what a cylinder costs. What is documented is that the constraint stays in place while demand shifts toward exactly this molecule.

    The wider supply picture

    The order continues while HFC supply is already capped and stepping down. Production allowances sit at 60% of baseline and drop to 30% on January 1, 2029 under 40 CFR 84.7. See our phasedown schedule and our explainer on what R-454B is.

    Frequently asked questions

    What did Commerce decide about R-32 duties?

    Commerce published a notice of continuation of the antidumping duty order on difluoromethane, R-32, from China on August 11, 2026, at 91 FR 51658, docket A-570-121. Commerce and the International Trade Commission both determined that revoking the order would likely lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping and material injury.

    Why does an R-32 duty matter for HVAC?

    R-32 is roughly two thirds of R-454B by weight, the A2L refrigerant most manufacturers adopted for residential equipment after January 1, 2025, and half of R-410A. A trade measure on R-32 therefore touches both new equipment and service of the existing installed base.

    Does this mean refrigerant prices will rise?

    Commerce publishes duty determinations, not price forecasts, and a continuation maintains an existing order rather than imposing a new one. We make no price prediction. What is documented is that the measure remains while HFC production allowances are separately capped and stepping down.

    Sources

    1. US Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, “Difluoromethane (R-32) From the People’s Republic of China: Continuation of Antidumping Duty Order,” 91 FR 51658, published August 11, 2026, docket A-570-121.
    2. US Environmental Protection Agency, 40 CFR 84.7, HFC phasedown schedule.

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